Prediction16

Yawn. Or not. The following will get real serious in 2016. Like,

People will replace newspaper time with time online, wrote Bill Gates in “The World in 1998” https://t.co/8bCPCUg1Ph pic.twitter.com/bvnMCpJJUB

— The Economist (@TheEconomist) December 11, 2015

Well, for the list with everything and their dog:

• Some Exits: Green Egg, ‘Cyber’everything, disruption/uberization, privacy, and, certainly and very much hopefully, “Like us on Facebook” … and very, very certainly hipsters let alone their ‘beards’ (quod non).
• Entrat to replace the latter, hopefully, some actual non- or anti-bureaucratic frameworks of mind.
• Also out, to be replaced by … [as yet unknown]: Vlogging or what have we, in socmed space, with 100k-1M+/++ followers as being he thing to aim for. As it becomes clearer and clearer in 2016 that only the 10M+/++ leaders (??) can make a dime from it, or barely a living. Who are the big winners, in all of this? User data / experience farmers?
• Risk Management 3.0 will grow to be the Next Thing in managementspeak. If you’d need any proof, go read back the ton of posts on your perennial Truth site.
• Also, we might get a last blip from SMAC(T) as a trend summary.
• All of the points made by The (some) Man. Obviously. And some of this as well though this may all show to be overblown.
• Still a wave of interest in Rise of the Robots. Combined with AI through and through, like in this. With support at an angle, from this.
• A further blend of cloudsourcing and deperimetrisation putting your infra and all of your data naked and out there in the cold.
• Oh almost forgot: A lot more on APTs, 3D printing (when will we finally get 4D printing …!?), MehhDrone stuff, blockchain, IoT, et al.
• But we may hope, the latter two get much more innovative applications; one the one hand with simpler explications, on the other, truly innovating e.g., into the DAO realm.
• Ah, DAOs; let’s first see more of this in 2016.
• Offering a simple list copy from HBR:
  • Algorithmic personality detection: Yes
  • Bots: Yes
  • Glitches: Mwah; we indeed will see scores of them, ever bigger and more impactful (also b/c complexity explosions of the mixed e and physical worlds), but they’re somewhat of the mehhh category for the purpose of Here.
  • Backdoors: See APTs et al; much more of them yes but again, mehhh
  • Blockchain: As mentioned
  • Drone lanes: Hmmm, interesting…
  • Quantum Computing: Probably hung in there from previous (many) years’ lists; mine, too. May, might, but for the same token may not
  • Augmented knowledge: Definitely. Hopefully, in a good way. But maybe even hopefully, steered towards safe use, after a hopefully indicative but small-enough dystopian-style mishap ..?
• CloudIAMming. IAM, renewed, for federated use in ‘the’ cloud. Yes, this will have a whole new lease of life, as a management field, and a consultancy field as well.
• This just in: Forgot to mention VR as a thing in 2016. Definitely.
• I may want to do an update halfway through the year…
• Oh, and of course our motto for 2016: A CEO with you, is still a CEO.
  #gosubstitute[ _X, _Y | fool, a tool ]

After which there’s only:

[Purposefully unsharp. Berlin, some years ago.]