Predictions 2014

Already somewhere below, I noted that the Analytics part of SMAC(T) may need to be rephrased. Already now, I’m unsure whether to do that or just leave it unchanged. What I didn’t yet do, was to opine on the other elements so often put together.
First, a picture.

[Casa de Música Porto, for the chaotic structure of the future]

Now then:
Social everything: Yeah, yeah, of course there will be news. The decline of Fubbuck, etc. But will we see actual breakthrough hitherto unseen inventions of anything game-changingly new? I predict 2014 will be a pause year in which we’ll only see paradigm detailing and quite an improvement (sic) of the use of Social by medium- and larger sized enterprises. In somewhat innnovative ways, but nothing earth-shattering.

Mobile everything: The same, hopefully through the much-wanted huge improvements in cross-platform and cross-screensize compatibility and standardization. Which, too, would be refinement rather than absolutely unexpected New.

Analytics, we discussed, separately.

Cloud, ‘mehhh’ for theory, ‘hey how refreshing to be able to distinguish so clearly a good implementation’ in practice. Because that’s what we’ll see in 2014; cloud stuff deliberately done right. (Being deliberate, not by accident as it was in 2013!)

Things; The Internet Of ~, maybe, but in my view it’ll be too early. More like something for under the [Warning: European + derivative culture reference coming up] Christmas tree, to be played with in the year after.

Any other business?


One with long odds: Clarity on the demise of “ERP” software. Of course, pre-2014 already the said administrative software, hardly ever used to its full potential but very often having been relegated into the bookkeeping role only, had been pushed away from the limelight into the back of the stage. But in 2014, we’ll see an acknowledgement of this, with consequences I cannot really predict very well – probably, all sorts of other software, more geared towards front-office functionality and integrating better architecturally with the bandwidth from there to the app/widget-world, will take over center stage.
[Update 2014 02 06: This link]

One with lesser odds: An enormous push for more information security, both at its operational, technical levels and upwards in renewal of structure (away from the stale, outdated ISO2700x sphere!) and inclusion of a more holistic approach (see some of my earlier posts, and probably some to come in the near future).
This will have a second leg in renewed interest in Business Continuity Management, not only by rule-based following of standards but also by more principle-based (sic) implementation of ISO 31000 (with all its drawbacks) throughout the business. If we can get our heads around the eradication of that ‘the business’ nonsense… and really integrate (continuity) risk-based management into general management, not needing too much 2nd or 3rd lines:

A final one: The deflation of TLD. The three lines don’t actually defend against anything but regulatory discovery of all that goes wrong in the business (from top to bottom and back again, there). As the previous prediction will already defend against actual mishaps, TLD will be shown to be emperor’s new clothes where lightning strikes. And oh will it strike; frappez, frappez toujours! it will and I hope. All those busybodies doing busywork, I just can’t stand it. The utter denouncement of humanity and human dignity …!

So, there you have it again; SMAC(T) weighed, and three more. Who make some interesting stuff available when I hit (or overshoot) five or more out of eight ..?

To close, another picture…

[Serralves, Porto – rainy outlook]

First Predictions 2014

[Unfamiliarly, from the West]

What’s up, 2014?

The end is nigh, of 2013. Can we predict what the big business / infosec hype of 2014 will be ..?
No. There’s no predicting the unknown. The somewhat-known will not stand out enough. The known… boring!

The knows are the fall of Fubbuck, maybe Tvitter (both to be replaced by the WeChat’s and hopefully Tumblr’s of this world; will Vine and Snapchat take over?), cloud, BYOD/flexwork, etc.
SMAC: Social, Mobile, Analytics, Cloud. ViNT by Sogeti adds a T of Things.

The Things part, I’m unsure about. Yes, for the long run (i.e., 2-5 years) we will definitely see an explosion. But next year already? It’s the infancy of a sine wave, taking off slowly.

So, my prediction is that the thing we’ll all be talking about as the next thing in 2014, would be … People versus Algorithms.
This was pointed out by some #Coney guy(s), with some lead links elsewhere. But algorithms will not conquer the world in one swallow. Rather, we will see both an increase in the use of algorithms for partial (at most!) data analytics, to support TLA-style use of ‘big’ data both in public and private environments – but also a major development of the People component in tha analysis, a wave of development of specialized functions, methodology and tools, re the human pattern detection and interpretation parts of analytics.

Plus, then a more clear picture of how people and algorithms fit together, as function, profession(s), etc., with spin-off everywhere e.g., the development of a better understanding of how the brain works, how humans work (produce / operate), how to describe the purpose of life. On our way to the Singularity, and Beyond!

Maverisk / Étoiles du Nord