Vindication …

With due respect, but vindication is a beautiful thing…
As I had delivered a lecture over five years on all the places that risk management of the Basel II/II style, using quants and all to model (an übercomplex combination of scores of) human behaviour thus sublimating one’s model errors and one’s misunderstanding of how the world turns, not even mentioning the risk of the 15.5 risk; necessarily (if you’d had got It) speculative about what’s next, the evaluation was heaviliy tilted from quite (UK style) positive to mediocre by one bad review, that had as only comment “not based in evidence”. See the latest pres’s in my LinkedIn profile; without much by way of speaker notes, the ones on e.g., Blind Alley et al. can be readily understood qua intent.
Recently then, finally, this arrived. Maybe spinning off in an adjacent direction; veering off or running in parallel? But definitely touching the sore spot.
To the point where the dish is sweetest served cold.
But hey, would have liked all the business (and ~travel…) opportunities that could’ve been…

Now, let’s all go study Basel IV’s methodology and learn (e.g., as in the above-linked article). Maybe there is a future for risk management. Even if not as a separate discipline; see my posts of management-in-general. Plus:

000003 (8)
[Once was my ‘work’ location; worth re-pursuing Trois Islets, Martinique]

TLD: Shoo! Shoo!

Awwww was reminded today that the fallacy of Three Lines of “Defence” is a stubborn one. Debunked by a great many, among others on this blog over a year+ ago, but still much too much alive. So let me remind you with the following picture that speaks for itself (or …):
Van plank misslaan naar spijker op de kop v0.3
[No high-class design frenzy, just the blot-down in an angered jolt]

Yes, that’s right, still, and is until y’all ditch the TLD idea on the rubbish heap of history: the lines DO NOT stand between the threats and the vulnerabilities. And Boards et al can bypass the circus at their leisure. The lines (aren’t) of defense (aren’t) only stand between all that has gone wrong, and the regulators so the latter are placated with three rounds of white washing and window dressing.

In the past, everyone I discussed this with, agreed the whole thing’s a joke. A sour, very expensive, delusional one. Everybody reacts, nobody responds… Which will need to change or massive damage will occur.

OK, I’ll stop now before my language over the totalitarian, mind- and ethics-genocidal bureaucracy gets out of hand.

Postdictions 2014-IV and Final

A progress report on the Predictions 2014 I made in several posts here, at the end of the year. So, going for final verdicts. And quite a score and end result…
I gathered some evidence, but probably you have much more of that re the items below. Do please raise your hand / comment with links; I’ll attribute my sources ;-]

First, of course, a picture:
[Yes this one one more time, as the future’s the flip side of the past …]

So, there they are, with the items collected from several posts and already updated several times before hence I’ll just highlight a few things:

Trust ✓ And double-check. Maybe the issue slowed in attention over the course of the year, but… intermediate and final kickers make this one a true ✓
Identity Hmmm, recurrent issues with strength of pwd methodologies, but for the rest… oh there’s XYZcoin with its trust-through-maximum-distribution-and-maximum-anonymity …! ✓
Things Oh absolutely ✓ Or you’re surfing blind. Is that an expression, yet ..?
Social Ello, Viv, etc., and for the rest, it has all been Business As Usual. Which makes it a ✓
Mobile Has truly gone to the Expired phase when all-platform(-agnostic) design has come and gone as a hype and has turned into a basic requirement. ✓
Analytics After the evangelists, now into the BAU lands. ✓
Cloud Mehhh! ✓ It’s Docker that will be next year’s Thing. Note that.
Demise of ERP, the Have almost heard nothing let alone ‘exiting’ about this. So ✓
InfoSec on the steep rise Even if we haven’t seen enough on this!

On APTs: Almost the only interesting thing aaround, still. ✓
On certification vulnerabilities: In hiding. Still there. Ssssht, will hit. Suddenly. ✓ without you knowing it.
On crypto-failures, in the implementations: Quite some news in the underwires… you may not have noticed, but the in-crowd has. Definite ✓
On quantum computing: – still not too much – which is something of a surprise. No ✓ here. Despite this late entry.
On methodological renewal; as it was: Some progress here and there, close to a ✓
Deflation of TLD As per ERP above. ✓ as the logical and methodological failures have prevented anyone to attach oneself to it for risk of looking dumb. Except for the ones still clinging to it, where the risk has materialized…
Subtotal Well, let’s call it an off the cuff 95%+, being an A+ indeed.

The faint of heart wouldn’t necessarily want to speak the bold characters out loud. And my nerw predictions are out there already; see the December 9th post.
Which leaves me to a link that you may want to get for me, for ‘winning’ my own predictions contest. Thank you!

Repeat: The Top 2000 or 2214 of 2014

[After apparently, some at @Top2000nl / @NPORadio2 decided that #Top2000 entries and votes were valid until yesterday this repost was in order – but the below had been out there, of course, as the definitive results already a month ago…]

OK … There it is: The definitive this year’s Top 2000.
Without argument or doubt, herewith…
First, downloadable in plain Excel, for your own tinker and play, in this file; checked and clean (no subversive content).

Next, a few little notes:

  • “That’s odd! The usual numbers 1 to 50 aren’t where they’re ‘supposed’ to be by common standards!” Correct. Because I‘m ‘Rekt. The list is mine; why put the Mehhh songs high up there? They’re in there somewhere, but its my list, my preferences..! yes I do like some almost-forgotten songs better, sometimes much, much better, than the expired old hands.
  • Especially.. see the notes, when the clip (much) enhances the song(s). Wouldn’t that mean the song in itself isn’t fully complete ..? No, it means in (since) the age of video, songs with clips (‘integrated’) can much surpass mere songs by themselves, for a cubed sensory experience.
  • There’s more than 2000 yes. Because, already after the first 500 or so, determining the relative rankings becomes awkward. Hence, the cut-off would be random …! (why not 2048, that would make more sense in this digital (i.e., binary) age).
  • If you would still have some (preferably wacky) songs you miss, please do comment them to me. I’ll see whether I’d want to include them still, or not. Hey, it’s my list so I decide, geddid?
  • When dabbling with the Excel file yourself, feel free to play around with the ranking mechanism. What worked for me, was to first split the songs into bins of about 250 size (designate some song to be in the first bin that will end up being ranks 1-250, another song to bin 5, which is around the 1000-1250 mark, etc.), then sizing down bin 1 etc. to 8 smaller bins. Then, numbers 1-50 get a personal treatment one by one to their end rank, the rest gets (got) a random allocation within their bracket. After this, sort and re-apply number 1-whatever. Through this, actual intermediate bin sizes aren’t too important.
  • Huh waddayakno, before the below is published, I have a Challenge for you: To give Frizzle Sizzle, Luv and Erik Mesie some rightful places. If you’re Dutch otherwise you might just not get it. Others, may include the B52’s somewhere; Love Shack. And DÖF’s Codo. ☺ and oops forgot Thomas Dolby.
  • [Edited to add: I’m now working on an extended list, with the How Could I Have Missed These!? so the total keeps rising. For next year’s list.]

Then, as a long, very long list. With a Moar tag otherwise it would be ridiculous… [i.e., for the complete list in the post, follow the link:]

Continue reading “Repeat: The Top 2000 or 2214 of 2014”

Clustering the future

Was clustering my themes for the future of this blog. Came up with:
Future trend subjects[Sizes, colours, or text sizes not very reflective of the attention the various subjects will get]
Low sophistication tool, eh? Never mind. Do mind, to comment. On the various things that would need to be added. As yes I know, I have left much out of the picture, for brevity purposes. But will want to hear whether I missed major things before I miss them, in next year’s posts. Thank you!
And, for the latter,
DSCN0924[Bah-t’yó! indeed]