Postdictions 2014-I

A progress report on the Predictions 2014 I made in several posts here, after Q1.

First, of course, a picture:
DSCN2671
[Skinny thumbs up]

So, there they are, with the items collected from several posts:

Trust Well, there’s the demise of Mt Gox as Bitcoin exchange. All of Q1 was full of Bitcoin, anyway. Yes, that’s about Trust. And, by the way, ‘total chaos, 386 coins stolen, experiment imploded’ it is ..?

Identity – Nothing in particular yet –
Things Oh so much; with domotics DIY packages ads being aired on national TV (at least, here in NL), with wearables developing ever further. Etc.
Social – Nothing in particular yet –
Mobile Apart from the phablet developments I wrote about earlier already, there’s Facebook bying (sic) Oculus. Yes that will change a lot. And oh, the wearables I mentioned above go under this header as well. Wristdevices aren’t even exiting anymore. GGlass turned out to be pilot prototyping, the spawn has happened already.
Analytics The Wave of People versus Algorithms I predicted earlier, is slowly growing, not in the wings anymore. We’ll see a lot in the next quarters of this. By way of labour market shortages for the right skills, and, a Wave at an angle: The rise again, this time for realz, of Artificial Intelligence. Watson in your mobile, etc.etc.
Cloud Mehhh, indeed. But with Google, and Amazon, nixing price levels just this last week, we’ll see a new wave of projects, by big corporates, SMEs, and individuals, into this realm. Though next quarters will also bring ‘clarity’ (incidents) on continuity risks.
Demise of ERP, the This one was in an afterburner prediction. But yes, we see it. Less and less jobs require knowledge of this (one major player), it’s by and large legacy. Heard an anecdote of a Fortune 500 or even 10 company that spent some ballpark $1B on their installation, and counting for maintenance and continued-necessary upgrading. Would’ve been a nice budget to build your own, perfectly tailored system… even including documentation, training, maintenance etc., you’d have quite a penny to spare.
InfoSec on the steep rise Even if we haven’t seen enough on this!

On APTs: The recent news that the NSA stole about all trade secrets, emails etc. etc. of Huawei, that is now by and large ‘known’ to have input backdoors in just about every piece of equipment shipped; spying back and forth is becoming the New Normal. APT by definition.
On certification vulnerabilities: – some news, not much; stays in the wings –
On crypto-failures, in the implementations: See Mt Gox. Yes, it was an implementation error (of a serious kind) that downed the exchange.
On quantum computing: – not too much –
On methodological renewal: I blogged about this (re Rebooting CIA and OSTMM). Some progress here and there, but no ✓ yet.
Deflation of TLD Yes of Three Lines of Defense and similar überbureaucratic models for models’ sake. We’ve even seen a little discussion on 5LD pop up. To demonstrate its ridiculousness. Nobody wants to work here anymore.
To contrast; some search company’s new Amsterdam offices: http://nydn.us/Qhe346
Subtotal Close to 80% as we speak.

The faint of heart wouldn’t necessarily want to speak the bold characters out loud.
See you at the end of Q2 ..!

[Edited immediately, to add:]
Missed in the predictions ahead of time, but still worthwhile to watch: Google’s move towards banking via Gmail … as per this story, as commented ‘ere.

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