RCSA is close to BAU

Close, as in no cigar yet (has the US ban on Cuban import been lifted already?).
But definitely, Risk Control Self-Assessments would, if carried out properly, be that major part of management’s daily (sic) chores that wouldn’t need annual get-togethers coaxed by outsiders (sic) but would be Business As Usual in operational practice. Maybe needing some periodic (weekly? monthly? certainly more than as now weakly annually) departmental review gathering but not a stage show as if this is the holy grail of business information flow. After which the ‘second line’ (as the back not even middle office function) receives the (right) info and acknowledges that the ‘first’ line has so much better sensors since they’re the first line par excellence, integrates the info into the upward report flow and reverts to fine-tuning the tools they provide to first-liners, and furthermore does … nothing. Second line is helpers, not dictators-by-soft-smothering. When it would turn out that all the high-quality hence qualitative (the reverse for quantitative) risk pics cannot be easily integrated into one pic, that’s too bad for the integrators but an appropriate (!) reflection of reality.

And if, on the other hand, first-liners need to be taken away from their actual productive work to sit in some song-and-dance by second-liners because it was so decreed by ‘governance’ levels (emperor’s clothes!), the very objectives will not be achieved. Since the ‘do something’ by deep-lying incompetence has lead to the wrong turn into a blind alley whereas the broad avenue (something like Younge Street) between wilderness and high (?) culture.

[I scheduled this post a couple of weeks ago for release in a couple of weeks but new developments seem to speed things up. For my many posts against Form over Substance … just search this blog for ‘TLD’ or bureaucracy …]
Won’t rant (too much) on; keep it to RCSA = BAU + quite some ε still, and:
DSC_0015
[Distorted? Only your picture is, here for a change, by standing too close; true reality is  not at the Edinburg Royal Mile!]

Prediction16

Yawn. Or not. The following will get real serious in 2016. Like,

Well, for the list with everything and their dog:

  • Some Exits: Green Egg, ‘Cyber’everything, disruption/uberization, privacy, and, certainly and very much hopefully, “Like us on Facebook” … and very, very certainly hipsters let alone their ‘beards’ (quod non).
  • Entrat to replace the latter, hopefully, some actual non- or anti-bureaucratic frameworks of mind.
  • Also out, to be replaced by … [as yet unknown]: Vlogging or what have we, in socmed space, with 100k-1M+/++ followers as being he thing to aim for. As it becomes clearer and clearer in 2016 that only the 10M+/++ leaders (??) can make a dime from it, or barely a living. Who are the big winners, in all of this? User data / experience farmers?
  • Risk Management 3.0 will grow to be the Next Thing in managementspeak. If you’d need any proof, go read back the ton of posts on your perennial Truth site.
  • Also, we might get a last blip from SMAC(T) as a trend summary.
  • All of the points made by The (some) Man. Obviously. And some of this as well though this may all show to be overblown.
  • Still a wave of interest in Rise of the Robots. Combined with AI through and through, like in this. With support at an angle, from this.
  • A further blend of cloudsourcing and deperimetrisation putting your infra and all of your data naked and out there in the cold.
  • Oh almost forgot: A lot more on APTs, 3D printing (when will we finally get 4D printing …!?), MehhDrone stuff, blockchain, IoT, et al.
  • But we may hope, the latter two get much more innovative applications; one the one hand with simpler explications, on the other, truly innovating e.g., into the DAO realm.
  • Ah, DAOs; let’s first see more of this in 2016.
  • Offering a simple list copy from HBR:
    • Algorithmic personality detection: Yes
    • Bots: Yes
    • Glitches: Mwah; we indeed will see scores of them, ever bigger and more impactful (also b/c complexity explosions of the mixed e and physical worlds), but they’re somewhat of the mehhh category for the purpose of Here.
    • Backdoors: See APTs et al; much more of them yes but again, mehhh
    • Blockchain: As mentioned
    • Drone lanes: Hmmm, interesting…
    • Quantum Computing: Probably hung in there from previous (many) years’ lists; mine, too. May, might, but for the same token may not
    • Augmented knowledge: Definitely. Hopefully, in a good way. But maybe even hopefully, steered towards safe use, after a hopefully indicative but small-enough dystopian-style mishap ..?
  • CloudIAMming. IAM, renewed, for federated use in ‘the’ cloud. Yes, this will have a whole new lease of life, as a management field, and a consultancy field as well.
  • This just in: Forgot to mention VR as a thing in 2016. Definitely.
  • I may want to do an update halfway through the year…
  • Oh, and of course our motto for 2016: A CEO with you, is still a CEO.
    #gosubstitute[ _X, _Y | fool, a tool ]

After which there’s only:
DSCN7943
[Purposefully unsharp. Berlin, some years ago.]

Porter’s half “value” chain

The problem: Half an <undefined> chain isn’t much good.
Because … There’s no money anywhere in the ‘Value Chain’ oft portrayed. As it is in Starreveld’s model. [You’re out of luck, in Dutch only and even then, no pics .. oh, there‘s one]

Which points to an even bigger error: No clear(ly communicated) def of Value in the first place. Allsorts went off and did a lot of heavy lifting (they wished! The lightweight airheads the majority was!), but achieved … not much; little; nothing worth their salts.

Obviously. And also, obviously very much required, these latter days, that a proper all-inclusive and operable definition of Value still is created, leaving mere ‘money’ in the dust similar to the distance between ‘data points’ and ‘information’. But let’s start with completion of the core model not keep it in half.

Oh well…:
DSC_0037
[Capture that in moahnay…; at what translates to Eddie’s ‘hood]

Fun / stagnation

About the difference between boring and Inspirational! in business.

Old New
Process, procedures, work steps Request for direction
Compliance Demonstrating failure; to learn
Punishment for (anyone’s! esp. higher-ups’) failures Coaching towards more errors
Stepping out of line (even by casual remarks hinting at less than 100% drone motivation) is failure Pivoting (even for your contribution) is near-mandatory
Succes is obedience to the gallows Success is coming up with / doing the hitherto infeasible, unthinkable
The ones exploiting drones (licking up / kicking down) and (only) best versed at sticking to their chair, are promoted Promotion? We don’t do rank and file here; we like your creative more or less
You’re fired – just because you’re a number that turned up in the lottery – that’s held every couple of months because bosses are bored and utterly incapable of coming up with anything revenue-increasing i.s.o. cutting costs and shrinking is growing, right? Even when the shrinking cuts out exactly the very growth-enhancing competences you need ever more desparate. You’re allowed to pursue a career elsewhere, too but we don’t want to lose you. What can we do to make you like it even more here?
“(The ‘innovator’s dilemma’ is that ‘doing the right thing is the wrong thing.’) As Christensen saw it, the problem was the velocity of history, and it wasn’t so much a problem as a missed opportunity, like a plane that takes off without you, except that you didn’t even know there was a plane, and had wandered onto the airfield, which you thought was a meadow, and the plane ran you over during takeoff.” (as here; very instructive) The same.
Fade to grey “I’m Cool”

Will amount to not much

… Was the typical reaction that long (!) time ago when this aired. Which was, statistically, correct I guess. When betting on binary outcomes ( [Huge | Nothing] ) with so skewed a distribution [Intermission: What would the moment-generating function be ..? Could point at some underlying success formula!] of probabilities, the Will Amount To Nothing opinion is quite valid.
But then, when weighing in the possible pay-offs (per distribution, too ..?), the picture is somewhat less clear. But still heavy on the Dismiss side, right ..?

Safe bet:
DSCN6846
[May still loose out after tech moved on; Sevilla]

Dump’let

Just a little dump’let of Inspirational tweets:

That’ll be all… Pics will return tomorrow.

Model code

In the race to get everyone and your grandmother (but in particular, ‘youth’) to code as that would be the new literacy, this here piece arrived quite in time.
In which Chris Granger explains that modelling the world around us (and taking it in), is the new literacy. [Read the article; it’s a full stretch more intricate than that actually.]

Right. With a number of sideline qualifications. But I don’t have the time right now to elucidate… They’re in the order of “But then, calculus and basic reading skills are required to understand the world and be able to deal with it. So it’s not that the old forms of literacy will go away (on the contrary; dismal education globally (sic) should be repaired, in particular numeracy) but they will be augmented. This will require a massive, huge! upgrade of about all teachers at all levels – which will not happen anytime soon. And programming skills are only the basics one needs to be able to analyse, model, and design the world around us, much like + and – are required to understand one’s income – assuming one has or needs money to live – or even money, or society’s functioning.
Let alone understand culture. Isn’t culture what is being transferred in Education ..?”

And so on. But as said, time limits… See this, too. Hence:
DSCN7557
[Baltimore is old. ?]

Span (out) of Control

How is it that for a long time we were used to managerial spans of control being in the 5‑to‑10, optimal (sic) 8 range, whereas what we had in the past couple of decades so often was spans of control in the 2‑3 range ..? [Duh, exceptions and successful organizations aside…]
Because I came across some post on Forbes where there’s an early simple statement that a span of control of 10 would not only be normal, but outdated as well, as the span could be at 30. Well, I doubt the latter, as this would conflict with a lower ‘Dunbar’ number which indeed is about 8, with ramifications for informal control as outlined in Bruce Schneier’s Liars and Outliers.

Oh yes now it springs to mind the 8 figure was developed by the military, the ultimate built‑for‑survival organization, through the ages to be the optimal span of control, aligning with the apparently natural Dunbar number. It was then taken over to business for its apparent effectiveness, and its apparently attractive all‑business‑is‑war metaphor – where the attraction is there only for those not really exposed to the gore of war, I guess. From which the fearful, the accidentally pushed into management roles clueless managers, tried to do what they thought was the gist of managerial literature: fight all uncertainty that might threaten your career. Through micromanagement, through requiring all data to be reported. Not to use it wisely, but to just pretend to be in control. And, if you don’t understand, just do with less direct reports to shrink what’s coming at you.

[Intermission:
DSCN2260
That man on the pole was quite a good leader it seems.]

But whether it’s 8, 10 or 30, the optimal span of control clearly is larger than the common today’s practice. Which has implications:

  • Too low a number will inevitably lead managers to seek to have something to do. Busywork, in their role leading to excessive micromanagement (yes pleonasm but on purpose) and/or excessive meeting behavior, in particular with their underlings and/or likewise trapped colleagues. A bit like an AA group. Which burdens the underlings by taking time away from actual content work and creating the need for action item lists and reporting blub. Thus losing time off colleagues with all sorts of, what actually is, whining.
  • Too low a number and the micromanagement leads to extreme (far overextended) controls burdens on the ones who’d actually produce anything of value. Instead of producing (net) negative value with all their externalities that managers may commonly do. This burdening then leads to ‘process’, ‘procedures’ etc., to ‘standardize’ (otherwise, understanding of actual content would be required; the horror for petty middle managers!). Thus hollowing out even further the value of any work done. As in the abovementioned Forbes article; the Peter Principle will reign.
  • Too low a number and the standardization will drive out the creativity (required in customer service and in product/service design, production and delivery). Where that is ever more essential than before to counter the ever more changing environment. As I typed this, this article arrived…
  • Colleagues (or rather, underling staff) will be demotivated due to having less and less time to do the work they’re assessed and valued for by the organization, and having to produce ever more TPS reports for overhead purposes. This will bring down performance, both directly and indirectly. And by the way, all the controls will also suffer by staff demotivation leading to less effectiveness or even full evasion. With equally rising risks for performance.

An extension to ten, or even twenty or thirty would be very well possible as well, in these times of massively improved information and reporting options. The latter aligns quite well with the increased need to at least have a little oversight left.

Though that would require much more empowerment (again) of your employees. That are the knowledge workers par excellence, right? If you don’t have those yet, you may have an entirely different but even more pressing problem… Have the real knowledge workers left, don’t they want to join anymore, or have you unconsciously but actively numbed them into sully drones? Whatever the cause, the real knowledge workers know better than their manager how to do their work – that’s why they do it and not the manager. If it were the other way around, it would be beneficial for the organization to have the manager do the grunt work. And no, micro management is something else.

The empowerment should go hand in hand with different styles of leadership, direction and oversight. Not based on ‘objectives’, made ‘smart’(not) for Pete’s sake, but based on truly smart KPI’s that leave employees room to do their business in ways they see best fit. Not rails, but guiding rails, and no yard-by-yard route directions but some A and B and a road (?) map. Or, well, a good navi system – or would you the manager want to pull the steering wheel for every correction? Reporting can similarly be made smarter anyway, or is that wishful thinking. In times of smart analysis with big data or not, this should be feasible.

And keeping just a little oversight is enough already for a good manager, and quite different from total(itarian) ‘control’. The former is needed to lead and direct, the latter is paralysis through total suppression and denial of a capricious reality.

And oh, for the record, some form of hierarchy will always be needed, even in fully horizontal network organizations with 360° feedback and what have we. Just re-read Flat Army by Dan Pontefract; without collapsing to a free‑for‑all hippie group, there are quite many ways to manage more humanlike. There just are so many ways to flex- and telework from home or anywhere, and a mature manager and her/his organization will pay for performance not mere attendance over performance.

So yes, we all need to focus on upping the number. To counter stalemates. To counter bureaucracy heavens. To regain flexibility. Still, still, this could only work IF, very very big if, ‘managers’ (not to address actual managers, that I value enormously!) can loosen their frantic, fear‑of‑death‑like Totalitarian Control and compliance attitude. Which I doubt. Maybe we should start to let such managers pursue other careers elsewhere, those that are specialists in sticking to their own chair by sacrificing all capacity and performance in times of cost savings. Then, the ones that are not good at that because they really try to achieve something for their organization wouldn’t have to be let go by the numbers and restore some positive balance of managerial capabilities.

But then, organizations relying on the control freak managers (whether already or after they will have crowded out the actual managers via the Peter Principle and acolyte behavior) will lose out to the upstarts that do keep the mold out. There’s hope.

Cyclexpo or Expocicle ..?

Tinkering with the hype-like hyping of exponential -everything- versus the Been There Done That ‘history’ prophets (?), trying to integrate their ideas:
Do we have enough history of macro- or micro-‘economic’ data to be able to establish whether in the really long run, the things that count (which, indeed, are not countable) are on a sinus wave pattern OR on an exponential growth pattern ..?

Contra which I’d pose another hypothesis: Both at the same time. And even another: None.

A lot of pundits of course make the mistake (I think it is) of believing the graphs that have shown a very, very slowly increasing (though already exponential) curve that, These Days or Tomorrow, suddenly shoots up extremely. As if the exponens has suddenly grown immensely. This has no proof and wouldn’t need one even to make the point. All ‘smooth’ exponential curves (i.e., with constant exponens) have these tipping points where from Quasi-Linear Under The Radar they suddenly shoot through the roof – and, as often forgotten but giving rise to the up-dent fallacy, they already have the (log) property where zooming in gives the same picture all over again; almost ‘fractalian’.

Other pundits make the mistake (I think it is) of assuming that there’s no news under the sun, ever. All is cyclical, all is under the Nietszchian spell of eternal return. All developments one can graph, have sinus wave functions through time (be it that it might take ages, aeons for the pattern to neat out). Which may be true, in part, when ‘inflation’ in all sorts of (qualitative …!?) areas is applied. But which also may not be true as there may (unfalsified hypothesis) be human(ity) Progress after all.

But then, what about sinus waves on top of exponential long-term developments ..? That would give almost-erratic, almost-earthquakelike-unsettling graph trend breaks, either up or down. (Next to more mundane settling-downs, obfuscating things.)
Or, exponential blips on top of longest-term sinus waves, of course. Also not looking too regular…
Or, there is nothing to extrapolate as all developments, once viewed primarily linearly, now also (sic) exponentially, are accidental short-term fits with the Very Long Term being random. Even Moore’s Law is an accident: Given (the approach of) endless numbers of hypotheses, some will be true, by chance.

We just don’t know until we’ve checked. Which may take eternity.

Just DON’T assume your expo-upkick is news, or is, per se.
And, maybe the Singularity will change things as Everything will be mental, abstract ideas instead of necessarily being possibly physics-bound in some way or another.

OK, enough now. This:
DSCN3684
[Shadows, reflections, of past and future(istic), Toronto again]

US economic philosophy: Sedláček’s lament

While reading up Sedláček’s Economics of Good and Evil, a side note (to the main line) struck me: Where have the mighty Men discussing the grand combined terrain of philosophy (maybe incl religion), sociology/psychology and economics gone ..? [Books by Quote to follow on this blog but don’t hold your breath it may take a while – many quotes to select/copy]

Since that is where our future will be. After the, with aspects of autism almost, mathematics-in-economics dominance will have proved to lead to insignificance at best, disaster at probable, war at worst. The sorcerer’s apprentices will show to hardly have learned a thing, not even standing in the shadow of the Masters. As succinctly explained in the above Book. What will fill the gap, the gaping void left? A return to normalcy, to proven effectiveness in the centuries-old approach. Hopefully. So that this ‘science’ too (pseudo- maybe? at least ‘gamma’ next to alpha humanities / liberal arts and beta hardcore subjects) will re-aim at improvement of the condition humaine not some shady capitalists’ (less-than-1-percenters’) bank accounts.

Will the change of course, of direction, have political ramifications? Definitely. But that doesn’t make them less wanted, or less necessary and inescapable by nature.
And, will it be awkward to acknowledge that the Americans (errr… US; Canadians say Sorry and hence are excused) and English (hardly UK) will have to truly learn from the French ..!? Definitely. And humourously. As the Author indicates, the French still have their philosophers that frequently voice political stabs. Some even do engage in actual politicks, and return. Right, monsieurs Attali and Minc ..? For which the French may be praised. If that’s a new thing for you, well…

Anyway, I’ll leave you with:
DSCN3512[For wisdom of any kind, not mammon. Think about the purpose of the skew of the picture.]

Maverisk / Étoiles du Nord