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Bias Time (9 of 9)

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[To round off brain ‘governance’]

Yes, it’s bias time again. The last of the series of biases that you, yes you, have. Even if you are aware of these, and even if you consciously try to correct for them to be, heh, ‘objective’, as in what e.g. auditors pursue, you will fail.

Red herring fallacies

  • Ad hominem: attacking the person instead of the argument. A form of this is reductio ad Hitlerum.
  • Argumentum ad baculum (“appeal to the stick” or “appeal to force”): where an argument is made through coercion or threats of force towards an opposing party
  • Argumentum ad populum (“appeal to belief”, “appeal to the majority”, “appeal to the people”): where a proposition is claimed to be true solely because many people believe it to be true
  • Association fallacy (guilt by association)
  • Appeal to authority: where an assertion is deemed true because of the position or authority of the person asserting it
  • Appeal to consequences: a specific type of appeal to emotion where an argument concludes that a premise is either true or false based on whether the premise leads to desirable or undesirable consequences for a particular party
  • Appeal to emotion: where an argument is made due to the manipulation of emotions, rather than the use of valid reasoning Continue reading “Bias Time (9 of 9)”

Books By Quote, Dutch edition

Again, a Books by Quote all in Dutch. As you may expect from that, content-wise we’ve moved down a peg or two (more..?) in wisdom, correctness, and due applicability but you may figure out for yourself why I copied the quotes; either because I find them valuable or because the error is of import for its ominousness (is that a word?).

Be aware that the quotes as such, aren’t a real unbiased ‘objective’ summary; most often I heartily advise to read the book yourself..! But maybe not this time…

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[Not Dutch, but impressive; Les Ménuires]

So, first up: Jan van der Vuurst’ Effectief Beïnvloeden, Spectrum, april 2011, ISBN 9789049107598.

Stakeholderanalyse: Assen Energie (laag naar hoog) en Aanvaarding, negatief naar positief. Bij de Y-as (Aanv) onderaan Vermijders, erboven Volgers, rechts uiterst onderaan Vijanden, erboven Partners. De Afwachters staan op de X-as links bij nul. (p.27)

Stakeholderanalyse, voor elke stakeholder die ertoe doet:
1. Wat is de aard van zijn/haar werk en wat is van essentieel belang om in dat werk succesvol te zijn?
2. Met welke verwachtingen heeft hij/zij te maken?
3. Wat wordt gemeten en beloond?
4. Wat is de cultuur van de afdeling waartoe elk van de sleutelfiguren behoort?
5. Wat staat momenteel bovenaan het prioriteitenlijstje?
6. De persoonlijke werk- en beslisstijl
• Op welke eigenschappen van andere mensen wijst iemand regelmatig?
• Wat zijn de onderwerpen waar de persoon het vaak over heeft zonder dat ernaar wordt gevraagd?
• Wat zijn de eerste vragen die iemand stelt bij een nieuw voorstel?
(pp.36-38)

Het Set-Up-To-Fail Syndrome … Als je vertrouwen in een medewerker begint te wankelen, is de kans groot dat je hem meer zult controleren en minder positieve feedback geeft. De medewerker zal dit aanvoelen en aan zichzelf beginnen te twijfelen. Hierdoor wordt de kans op fouten van de medewerker groter, waardoor je je indruk alleen maar bevestigd ziet. (p.67)
Continue reading “Books By Quote, Dutch edition”

TL;DR on TLD (or 5LD)

Ah, yes, let’s not forget to add the biggest Quod Non of the decade to our list of subjects for the redevelopment of information security / information risk management / risk management / management of risks / management ‘book’ forthcoming.
Indeed, three lines of ‘defense’ will be in. As well as the extension to five lines of defense. Which will all not work, and will all just add to the culpability of those proposing them, as they must know better or declare their incompetence at an even broader scale and abstraction layer.

Because, and here I repeat myself, and many others, how can something help defend when it’s not between a threat and a vulnerability ..!?

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[Dee An Bee]

Because I already discussed this in the past (way back, couple of months ago (final one)), and will discuss in all detail in the overall Book (white paper) on the above subjects, I’ll leave it here. For the believers in the idea: Full speed ahead into the blind alley …!

Silent SOx Shutdown

As Fortune Magazine reported last week, suddenly everyone realises that the dreaded (dreadful?) Sarbanes-Oxley act has hardly any sway anymore over business affairs. And some senators are calling for its repeal.

First, a pic for your viewing pleasure:
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[Barça, near the Olympic (remember?) village]

Can we assume this a sign of the waning of Compliance ..? Hopefully. What we’re left with, is a decade of misery for all but the compliabullies. How can we force them to pony up the compensation for financial and immaterial damages they caused ..?
They’re probably too blind (numb) to see that they did, massively, without any improvement in overall management, or viability, of the organisations involved. On the contrary, all the efforts were so misdirected that initiatives that might actually have helped, were thwarted. Innovation initiatives were demolished, economies destroyed. The only escape vent was in the financial industry, where wizardry escaped the numb compliabullies. What a bubble blew out…
And think of all the (actual, positive) creativity and careers that didnt take flight, or were culled. How to restore all the joy of years of productive careers, not as a second wind because that always sourly reminds of the lost years, the irrevokably lost life ..? If all that can be done is destroy the compliabullies’ lives and memories, then maybe that’s all that can and should be done. Not preferable, but if, then.

Two shorties

Just to drop ’em.

First; the hypes come and disappear again quicker than you get to notice them as such. As in some Bird thing. Is this the new way trends will go ..? If so, we’ll all have trouble keeping up, and will see disparate clusters of innovation, some re-inventions without linkage, some unique evolutionary directions taken. Long live diversity! Until the Other comes to bite you. Yes, I did aim to frame this as a remark on, e.g., economic development (followed by military power to secure the elsewhere cheaper resources), new-business models, and products and services. Now that we come to realise the balance between exposure for scrutiny and secrecy for deep development. À la Eppel.

Next: Not even pop-art is sacred. What’s next; a 3D (sic) printer for Jackson Pollocks ..? The horror. But, this may lead to creativity being defined better. Since the Act of pop-art, at its inception, was the great Move. The copy, even IF it were an improvement or only equally valuable (in cultural terms), still needs the reference to the greatness of pop-art, throughout, and doesn’t add a critique or anything, no ump to new insights. Nice mee-too art, but not Great Art, for my part. Now where is that chasm; what criteria to establish..?
(And, some pics in the link are quite good, in particular when seen as a series. Some form of art there. Should not have referenced older art too much, would have been better.)

As expected, a picture again for your viewing pleasure:
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[Trier but you spotted that]

Bias Time (8 of 9)

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[Library of ideas?]

Yes, it’s bias time again. The eighth of the series of biases that you, yes you, have. Even if you are aware of these, and even if you consciously try to correct for them to be, heh, ‘objective’, as in what e.g. auditors pursue, you will fail.

Faulty generalizations

  • Accident (fallacy): when an exception to the generalization is ignored.
  • No True Scotsman: when a generalization is made true only when a counterexample is ruled out on shaky grounds.
  • Cherry picking: act of pointing at individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position
  • Composition: where one infers that something is true of the whole from the fact that it is true of some (or even every) part of the whole
  • Dicto simpliciter
  • Converse accident (a dicto secundum quid ad dictum simpliciter): when an exception to a generalization is wrongly called for
  • False analogy: false analogy consists of an error in the substance of an argument (the content of the analogy itself), not an error in the logical structure of the argument
  • Hasty generalization (fallacy of insufficient statistics, fallacy of insufficient sample, fallacy of the lonely fact, leaping to a conclusion, hasty induction, secundum quid)
  • Loki’s Wager: insistence that because a concept cannot be clearly defined, it cannot be discussed
  • Misleading vividness: involves describing an occurrence in vivid detail, even if it is an exceptional occurrence, to convince someone that it is a problem
  • Overwhelming exception (hasty generalization): It is a generalization which is accurate, but comes with one or more qualifications which eliminate so many cases that what remains is much less impressive than the initial statement might have led one to assume
  • Pathetic fallacy: when an inanimate object is declared to have characteristics of animate objects
  • Spotlight fallacy: when a person uncritically assumes that all members or cases of a certain class or type are like those that receive the most attention or coverage in the media
  • Thought-terminating cliché: a commonly used phrase, sometimes passing as folk wisdom, used to quell cognitive dissonance.

Not books, by Quote

Ah, some loose ends this time, quotes, not as much Books by ~ but nevertheless worthwhile, I think. Some in Dutch, but you’ll manage to understand them …?

Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly, and applying the wrong remedies (Groucho Marx)

The difference between pizza and your opinion is that I asked for pizza.

In De gezonde samenleving suggereert de Duits-Amerikaanse psycholoog en filosoof Erich Fromm (1900-1980) dat mensen zo geobsedeerd zijn door veiligheid omdat de vervreemde enkeling verlangt naar conformiteit en zich daardoor juist steeds onzekerder voelt. Volgens Fromm hebben mensen in de kapitalistische samenleving steeds meer het gevoel gekregen dat ze geen problemen, zorgen of twijfels zouden hoeven te hebben, en dat als ze geen risico’s nemen, ze zich veilig zouden moeten voelen. Hij vindt dit een dubieuze overtuiging. Net zoals actieve en betrokken mensen verdriet of pijn niet kunnen vermijden, zo moet iemand die nadenkt onzekerheid kunnen verdragen zonder in paniek te raken. (Timon Meynen, Filosofie scheurkalender 25 december 2013)

‘Heb de moed je eigen verstand te gebruiken’ (Sapere aude) is het motto van de Verlichting geworden. De uitspraak komt uit het essay Beantwoording van de vraag: Wat is Verlichting? Van Immanuel Kant (1724-1804), die een van de laatste en grootste verlichtingsfilosofen was. De Verlichting hield volgens hem in ‘dat de mens zijn door hemzelf veroorzaakte onmondigheid achter zich laat. Onmondigheid is het onvermogen je verstand te gebruiken zonder de leiding van een ander. Aan jezelf te wijten is deze onmondigheid wanneer de oorzaak ervan niet een gebrek aan verstand is, maar een gebrek aan vastberadenheid en aan moed om hier zonder andermans leiding gebruik van te maken.’ (Suzan Derksen, Filosofie scheurkalender 18 december 2013)

No look at philosopies of death would be complete without a visit to the twentieth century existentialists, who saw non-existing as a companion piece to existing – sort of like a matched set. So we’ll check in on Martin Heidegger and Jean-Paul Sartre, who tried to look unflinchingly at deadness. Heidegger claimed we actually need the anxiety of death to keep us from falling into ‘everydayness’, a state in which we’re only half alive, living with a deadening illusion. (Thomas Cathcart, Daniel Klein, Heidegger and a Hippo Walk Through Those Pearly Gates, p.6)

And a picture for your viewing pleasure:DSCN2075
[Maybe not pearly, Barça]

According to Becker, the only way most of us deal with this situation is delusion – in fact, the Big Delusion. The B.D. is the basic human drive, … and it gives rise to ‘immortality systems’, non-rational belief structures that give us a way to believe we’re immortal. There’s the ever-popular strategy of identifying ourselves with a tribe, race, or nation that lives on into the indefinite future, with us somehow a part of it. Then there’s the immortality-through-art system, in which the artist foresees her work enduring forever, and therefore herself immortalized too – in the pantheon of Great Artists or, at the very least, as a signature at the bottom of a sunset landscape propped up in a corner of her grandchildren’s attick. Then there are the top-of-the-market immortality systems enshrined in the world’s religions, ranging from living on as part of the cosmic energy in the East to sailing off to be with Jesus in the West. At a less lofty level, there is the immortality-through-wealth system. This one provides us with a nifty life goal to wake up to every morning: go get more money. That way we don’t have to think about the Final Bottom Line. (Thomas Cathcart, Daniel Klein, Heidegger and a Hippo Walk Through Those Pearly Gates, pp.14-15)

I always wanted to be somebody. Now I see that I should have been more specific. (Lily Tomlin in Thomas Cathcart, Daniel Klein, Heidegger and a Hippo Walk Through Those Pearly Gates, p.40)

Sam and Joe, two elderly gents, were talking on a park bench. Sad Sam, ‘Oy, all my life, one trouble after another. A business that went bankrupt, a sickly wife, a thief for a son. Sometimes I’d think I’d be better off dead.’ Joe: ‘I know what you mean, Sam.’ Sam: ‘Better yet, I wish I’d never been born.’ Joe: ‘Yeah, but who had such luck? Maybe one in ten thousand?’ (Thomas Cathcart, Daniel Klein, Heidegger and a Hippo Walk Through Those Pearly Gates, pp. 48-49)

Eternity is very long, especially near the end (Woody Allen)

In vele – met name Engelse – overzichten wordt het typisch Duitse onderscheid tussen lage beschaving (Zivilisation) en hoge cultuur (Kultur) aan Johann Gottfried Herder (1744-1803) toegeschreven. Maar de oudste formulering van de tegenstelling is waarschijnlijk van Immanuel Kant (1724-1804). Beschaving of civilisatie, … draait om het aanleren van goede manieren, nodig voor de dagelijkse omgang – een kwestie van uiterlijkheden. Maar cultuur draait om ‘de idee van de moraliteit’. Dan gaat het om innerlijke gerichtheid op het goede: dat wat uit overtuiging gedaan moet worden. (Jan Dirk Snel; Filosofie scheurkalender 17-9-2013)

We zijn tot vervelens toe geciviliseerd tot allerlei uitingen van maatschappelijke vleierij en fatsoen. (Immanuel Kant, Idee zu einer allgemeinen Geschichte in weltbürgerlicher Absicht, 1784)

InfoSe€€€

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[Infra to use, to protect]

On then, with the dream of rational (i.e., ‘cost-effective’) information security control selection. Apart from the definitions, distinctions and boundaries between operations management, information management, data management, information security, IT security, business continuity management, etc. – I don’t really care, they all end up with the same sort of ‘risk analysis’ quod non (see earlier posts, the most prominent being this one) and a sort of afterburner about weighing costs versus benefits of controls to be put in place. Nothing on all the stuff I discussed in that prominent post; the time-sensitive chances, impacts and effectivenesses of threats, vulnerabilities, controls individually and in interactions, feedforward and feedback loops, the enormity of lack of reliable data and the overwhelming noise and error this introduces into any calculation.
And nothing on how one should go about estimating the costs of controls vis-à-vis their effectiveness. Because that’s even harder to do, when one has continuous but very often hardly-quantifiable costs of controls individually let alone in conjunction with others (all with costs varying in time, again, too ..!).

Continue reading “InfoSe€€€”

Maverisk / Étoiles du Nord