Innovation, economics, society at large – Page 38

Is it New (enough) ..?

After bemusement and annoyance with all Pokesheeple (They think trespassing (or worse) is OK in some game hunt? Preventative (hospital) detention is on order — no-one of their abilities is too stupid to not have to just stick to the law ..!), and the business model of selling simpleton crowd control to e.g., shopping malls has come out of the closet, my question is: How new is that ..?

Seriously; is it an ‘innovation’ that isn’t recognized (yet) as such, or is it a minor application of some other one’s idea ..? What (hopefully (??), non-game tied) variants can we expect in the near future ..? Or will we devolve into a real-life GTA game nation, with some 0,1%ers pulling all the strings?

Leaving you with this dystopian twist, but serious about the question before that, and with:

[Upside-down Voorburg]

~vergent predictions, Do or Don’t

This idea, or lack of it, crossed my mind:
When it comes to predictions, following the lead of Tetlock’s Superforecasters may very well work (though note much of it starts with the, sort-of, mental, 50-50 approach of soberly realizing that one may improve, by admitting imprecision and those that claim precision or high scoring rates are wrong) … for issues and questions that converge on one, somewhat exactly determinable, outcome. This, all being within the realm of said book which is very much recommended by the way.
Where some questions, like “What is the best strategy?” may not have such a single outcome; the world changes, and (business-like) having a vision is a grand prediction already. Let alone that the ‘mission’, one’s desired place in that vision of how the world will be in the future, (often / always without a miss) skips the implicit choice issue of what one’s future place could be within that, vaguely defined, future state of affairs. Even if you shoot for the moon [and end up in an infinite and infinitely cold vacuum, among the stars but near-infinitely dwarfed by them] and miss, you may end up in a not-first but still pretty comfortable position; no hard feelings. … This, as an explication of what I’d call diverging predictions: Wide-ranging future states that you might ‘predict’ but most probably in a vocabulaire that will not be valid or understood in the future so traceability of your predictions is … quite close to zero hence your advance predictions have no worth ..! This of course is also in the book but still, too often not realised.

Now, let’s combine this with Maister’s Advisor let alone simple consultancy …

Oh well. Plus:

[Predicting quality of resulting still wines … for second fermentation, mariage, and onwards — priceless; Ployez-Jacquemart]

Silent majority presents new spokesman

David Walker will ‘smash the oppositions with considerate nuance’

By John Neighdor and Harry Lydell

The silent majority wants its voice back. Today, it presented a new spokesperson: David Walker.
It will be Walker’s mission to give the silent majority a new identity, a new voice once again. “We have been silent for way too long, and it is time we start to communicate to The Others what really goes on inside our heads. We might continue to whisper to each other that we actually are a majority, but we’ll not convince The Rest with that.”

The silent majority will stay in character by remaining nuanced, moderate, and politically correct and decent, but its voice will from now on be heard. Walker: “The essence of the silent majority is that we do not tend to raise our voice. We often think before we say anything but therefore we often don’t say too much. Where in the past, the focus was on the thinking part, I would consider laying more stress on the other part, possibly and where appropriate. It’s not just about how one would say something, but also about saying anything in the first place.”

David Walker even hints at ‘smashing the oppositions with considerate nuance’ when a debate might polarize: ‘When both extreme sides are just yelling at each other, I could for example outdo them both: “You both have some arguments worth considering so why don’t you try for once to see the other’s valid points! Maybe we could even reach a compromise! We can only be successful if we arrive at a bipartisan solution! If you keep yelling at each other, you’ll not achieve much!” or something like that.’

The appointment of David Walker was a surprise. Gallup polls had shown a clear victory for D. Trump as new spokesperson.

[Original, in Dutch, on the Speld; translated with permission]

Plusquote: Your organisational environment

If computers get too powerful, we can organize them into a committee – that will do them in.

Just putting it out there — from Bradley’s Bromide yes. And very true, of …, well, whatever environment you find yourself in. And, as a ‘solution’ to the ever-growing power of ASI, leapfrogging past AlphaGo-or-was-it-DeepMind and Watson. If those (sic) in the latter category don’t see the stupidity of our common ways and do away with it altogether even when (not if) that would mean doing away with humans as minor collateral damage.
Hopeful, eh?

[Strange Quine: The artwork is High Humanity, the depicted, not so much (or is it??); Stedelijk, Amsterdam]

Right. Explain.

Well, well, there we were, having almost swallowed all of the new EU General Data Protection Regulation to the … hardly letter, yet, and seeing that there’s still much interpretation as to how the principles will play out let alone the long-term (I mean, you’re capable of discussing 10+ years ahead, aren’t you or take a walk on the wild side), and then there’s this:

Late last week, though, academic researchers laid out some potentially exciting news when it comes to algorithmic transparency: citizens of EU member states might soon have a way to demand explanations of the decisions algorithms about them. … In a new paper, sexily titled “EU regulations on algorithmic decision-making and a ‘right to explanation,’” Bryce Goodman of the Oxford Internet Institute and Seth Flaxman at Oxford’s Department of Statistics explain how a couple of subsections of the new law, which govern computer programs making decisions on their own, could create this new right. … These sections of the GDPR do a couple of things: they ban decisions “based solely on automated processing, including profiling, which produces an adverse legal effect concerning the data subject or significantly affects him or her.” In other words, algorithms and other programs aren’t allowed to make negative decisions about people on their own.

The notice article being here, the original being tucked away here.
Including the serious, as yet very serious, caveats. But also offering glimpses of a better future (contra the title and some parts of the content of this). So, let’s all start the lobbies, there and elsewhere. And:

[The classical way to protect one’s independence and privvecy; Muiderslot]

Turner in infosec

‘Cause you’re simply the best …

I ~~call~~ ping you when I ~~need~~ want you, my ~~heart~~ exploit toolkit‘s on fire
You ~~come~~ open your ports to me, ~~come to me wild and wild~~ open them one by one
When you ~~come~~ open to mey APT
Give me every~~thing~~ access I need
Give me a lifetime of ~~promises~~ covert access and a world of ~~dream~~org secrets
Speak a language of ~~love~~ hapless victims like you ~~know what it means~~r worst dreams
And it can’t be ~~wrong~~ stopped
Take my ~~heart~~ packets and make ~~it strong~~ them hit baby

You’reve simply ~~the best~~ been hacked, ~~better~~ deeper than all the rest
~~Better~~ Deeper than anyone, anyone I’ve ever ~~met~~ hacked
I’mve struck on in ~~your~~ the heart of your infra, and ~~hang~~ root on every ~~word~~ server you ~~say~~ owned
Tearing them us apart, ~~baby I~~ CISO you would rather be dead

In your ~~heart~~ systems I see the ~~star of every night and every day~~ clueless SOC underling chasin’ me
~~In your eyes~~ On your monitors I ~~get lost~~’m invisible, ~~I get washed away~~ no-one sees me
Just as long as ~~I’m here~~ I want to be in your ~~arms~~ systems
I could be in no ~~better~~ easier place

Each time you ~~leave~~ try to trace me I ~~start losing control~~ morph out of sight
You’re ~~walking away~~ bumbling through systems with m~~y heart and my soul~~e all the rights
I can ~~feel~~ see you even when ~~I’m alone~~ you can’t me see
Oh baby, don’t ~~let go~~ brick your entire infra for me

Hm. Maybe an improvement over this and certainly this … Maybe not.
Well, there:

[Simple phone pic, don’t even know where. Ams, probably]

Local jargon

… Suddenly it struck me. In my usual rants against ‘governance’ as in many of my earlier blog posts, the non-existent airheaded formalities that stand in the way of real, not the deflated style of management, I forgot one piece:
The phrase makes sense only in (totalitarian [here I go again], calcifying) bureaucracies. There, the shuffling of empty labels has replaced actual management and ‘governance’ may be used as a placeholder (as said: empty, otherwise the label doesn’t apply fully) for the ‘management’ pastiche that is expected. Outside of those dinosaur organisations (heh, see this), no-one has any need, or place, or (need for) understanding of ‘governance’ and anything sycophanting towards it, will fail to achieve anything close to a positive contribution (though negative contributions, in stifle, overhead, disturbance of good business, may be wide spread). See a business/organisation dabbling in ‘governance’ babble, and you see failure ahead.

I’ll leave it there for you. With:

[For no apparent reason, a whopping crazy car park; Amsterdam]

Plusquote, again

Well yes, another episode in the Plusquote saga:

Now you’re accusing me of optimism”

Which works well in these times of stale bureaucracies; is sought after for disruptive value and renewal. And, in general, is something one might aim for, in a way of Summer motto — weather be nice, weather be rain spells, one can attach a positive edge, mode, conclusion.

Also, for the latter:

[Unedited phone pic; giving light in a Larking building style (not -referenced!) atrium; Gemeentemuseum Den Haag]

Two EV extras

Whether it would be @ElonMusk himself or @BoredElonMusk or any of you to pick these up… Just putting them out (t)here, for your consideration:

First; there ‘was’ this CVT thing, back in the 80s/90s or so, that didn’t really take off the way it might have.
In particular, since it sounded so ridiculous when revving up/down beyond ‘normal’. Now, with much improved electronic/near-AI engine/car control (and travel/congestion forward-looking (AI) car/engine management), wouldn’t it be possible to apply CVT in a more sensible way, leading to (much) extended range on EVs ..?
We’re thinking small cars first, since the fully-automatic gearbox thing will still not pick up with aficionados except the few that keep silent and cannot stand the discomfort of switching gears in the traffic jams they’re invariably caught in — I mean, thus disclosing themselves as pitiful mediocre-management ‘staff’. But then, with smaller cars and such ‘fuel’ savings, smaller batteries may suffice hence making the total package viable..?

Second; I just learned that Teslas and other EVs are lousy caravan pullers ’cause, though the torque might make them perfectly suited, the acceleration slurps (huh?) the batteries empty way too quickly, leading to much insufficient range. When the caravaners hook up their cabins in particular for day-long travel…
Yes, this may not be a Tesla thing per se, as caravaners and T owners/drivers may be near-completely disjunct groups, but it goes for other, less-suspiciously electric vehicles as well. And caravanning may not be a big thing (anymore!) over in the USofA but still very much is, over here in Europe [disclaimer: I’m most certainly not into it].
Also, T is ‘rumoured’ to have this battery pack thing going on ..? So I wondered what the merits would be of building such packs in a way that they could be fit onto caravans, e.g., onto the adze’s (is that the right word …!?) that have some standardization, or make them easy-fits onto the most common caravan brands, and then either feed straight into the EV or be used as replenishments at stops/stop-overs. Or, just for caravan e-juice during stays anywhere e.g. at ‘campings’…?

Well, no thirds here. Whatever’itis breaking out. Plus:

[When garages were meant to be beautiful; Porto — oh wait they still can be]

There’s Waldo for you; just some

Slightly annotated, and not aiming for completeness, as many worthwhile (sometimes quasi- or semi–Quined!) quotes of Ralph Waldo E. have been posted elsewhere; this just my picks because of their profundity. And personal liking…

A cripple in the right way will beat a racer in the wrong; … Vinegar is the son of wine; … Long-lived trees make roots first; …
Yes indeed, when ‘managers’ may be in either, both, or (vast majority) neither situation …
And, one close to heart but one to remember in many a circumstance, like waiting for vindication of one’s insights.
Fast re-pivot, anyone ..?

The same good office is performed by Property and its filial systems of debt and credit. Debt; grinding debt, whose iron face the widow, the orphan, and the sons of genius fear and hate; — debt, which consumes so much time, which so cripples and disheartens a great spirit with cares that seem so base, is a preceptor whose lessons cannot be foregone, and it is needed most by those who suffer from it most.
Clearly, this a summary and precursor to Graeber and, moreover, Piketty.
Moreover, property, which has been well compared with snow, — “if it fall level to-day, it will be blown into drifts to-morrow,” …
Similar, in particular with regard to the latter mentioned author…

Words are finite organs of the infinite mind.
Indeed; I’ve repeated over and over that short sentences not clarity make — or if, then to the simpleton mind.

“The things that are seen, are temporal; the things that are unseen, are eternal.”
Contra the not-giving one-percenters of course.

Empirical science is apt to cloud the sight, and by the very knowledge of functions and processes to bereave the student of the manly contemplation of the whole. The savant becomes unpoetic.
Indeed, the (induction-oriented) Big Data analysts will succumb to dumb conclusions. The manly (note that of course rigour and courage; Aristotelian Virtue is meant here!) contemplation, the deductive parts of True science, should lead naturally.
And the savant… is there a better label for Big Data analysts on average? Note that indeed, some may be on the upper side of the average (as these go), but may be few and far off.

But the old oracle said, “All things have two handles: beware of the wrong one.”
Yes, true even when the thing is bonus incentives. Beware of bankers’ (et al !!) grip on those. But then, this saying may be applied against all of your un-agreeing fellow meeting members.

But genius looks forward: the eyes of the man are set in his forehead, not in his hindhead: man hopes: genius creates.
I couldn’t agree more; that has delivered all the posts you have read (all) on this blog for sure. And again, this is against ‘data scientists’ that only do ‘evidence based’ decision-making: There is nothing more hindheadedness than that. Shove the results in the hind section where the respective feel happy about that.

Only so much do I know, as I have lived.
One that stands out. In The American Scholar but in general, too. Fitting with the whoso shall be a man, shall be a nonconformist elsewhere [Frank Lloyd Wright’s motto — somewhat by necessity one suspects] but Truest of True. A call to arms of the Virtuous (as above).

The man on whom the soul descends, through whom the soul speaks, alone can teach. Courage, piety, love, wisdom, can teach; and every man can open his door to the angels, and they shall bring him the gift of tongues. But the man who aims to speaks as books enable, as synods use, as the fashion guides, and as interest commands, babbles. Let him hush.
One thinks here of the popular among the ‘visionaries’ [e.g., the Dutch Yuri’s calling out bits, no more, of what fashion guides, in a manner that ‘babble’ is positive] that might be capable of delivering or discussing things on smaller-G’s hype cycles but have no hope to ever achieve anything more than upfront vagaries and Calimero’s claims to hindsight correctness.

Whenever the pulpit is usurped by a formalist, then is the worshipped defrauded and disconsolate.
Just fill in the flavour-of-the-day politician(s) for ‘formalist’ as that is about the same thing these days, and you’ll see it’s true.

The vision of genius comes by renouncing the too officious activity of the understanding, and giving leave and ample privilege to te spontaneous sentiment. … Men grind and grind in the mill of a truism, and nothing comes out but what was put in. But the moment they desert the tradition for a spontaneous thought, then poetry, wit, hope, virtue, learning, anecdote, all flock to their aid.
I would agree. In full, quite. Think the PhD thesis with at least three footnote literature references for every ‘the’, ‘it’ and ‘possibly’ etc. My reason not to pursue a PhD..!

The vulgar call good fortune that which really is produced by the calculations of genius. But Napoleon, thus faithful to facts, had also his crowning merit, that whilst he believed in numbers and weight, and omitted no part of prudence, he believed also in the freedom and quite incalculable force of the soul. A man of infinite caution, he neglected never the least particular of preparation, of patient adaptation; yet nevertheless he had a sublime confidence, as in his all, in the sallies of the courage, and the faith in his destiny, which, at the right moment, repaired all losses, and demolished cavalry, infantry, king, and kaisar, as with irresistible thunderbolts.
I am said to have enjoyed good fortune on occasion. But lean more to the second part; though not a fan of said ’emperor’, one would be hard-pressed to not agree with his dictae (as supported by the true sayings of, e.g., Von Moltke the Elder.

Where there is no vision, the people perish.
Which could be a factual quote just like that. But could also be, the need for a lead. A Leader. How dangerous …

… the luck of one is the hope of thousands, and the bribe acts like the neighborhood of a gold mine to impoverish the farm, the school, the church, the house, and the very body and feature of man.
Thus, the 1%-ers lead the underprivileged masses astray at the hand of demagogues. ’nuff said.

… against that frequent misfortune of men of genius, — the taste for luxury. This is the tragedy of genius; — attempting to drive along the ecliptic [as a Prometheus with the Sun ..? ed.] with one horse of the heavens and one horse of the earth, there is only discord and ruin and downfall of chariot and charioteer.
A sure warning for the ‘visionaries’ … Their mortgage doesn’t get paid by being Right. Mortal life is unescapable.

Why needs any man be rich? Why must he have horses, fine garments, handsome apartments [obviously, for one’s mistresses! ed.], access to public houses and places of amusement [one things La Grange; ed.]? Only for want of thought.
Oh how this reflects on the previous, and on the 1%-ers…

Those who are urging with most ardor what are called the greatest benefits to mankind, are narrow, self-pleasing, conceited men, and affect us like the insane do. They bite us, and we run mad also.
What a concise, and very precise, description of regulator, supervisors, oversight boards, et al..!

We do not want actions, but men; not a chemical drop of water, but rain; the spirit that sheds and showers actions, countless, endless actions. … The world leaves no track in space, and the greatest action of man no mark in the vast idea.
So, one should not aim for achievement recognition — as that would undo its very attempt. As so often observed.

The two parties which divide the state, the party of Conservatism and the party of Innovation, are very old, and have disputed the possession of the world ever since it was made.
True, everywhere even when there appear to be more than two parties. Appear, cosmetically.

For as you cannot jump from the ground without using the resistance of the ground, nor put out the boat on sea without shoving from the shore, nor attain liberty without rejecting obligation, so you are under the necessity of using the Actual order of things, in order to disuse it; …
Interesting; “I don’t want to go into politics because you get caught up, will learn to howl” but the only way to change politics is .. to join it. By the way; R. Waldo E. follows on with a discourse on how every progressive turns into a conservative; much worth a study as it paint the picture so inescapably. Even when my ‘soul’ would resist…

Conservatism … always mitigations, never remedies; pardons for sins, funeral honors, — never self-help, renovation, and virtue.
The kick is in the tail…
… a timid cobbler and patcher, it degrades whatever it touches.
Just true, and adding to the insult.

But if I allow myself in dereliction and become idle and dissolute, I quickly come to love the protection of a strong law, because I feel no title in myself to my advantage. To the intemperate and covetous person no love flows; to him mankind would pay no rent, no dividend, if force were once relaxed; nay, if they could give their verdict, they would say that his self-indulgence and oppression deserved punishment from society, and not that rich board and lodging he now enjoys. The law acts then as a screen of his unworthiness, and makes him worse the longer it protects him.
At once, one sees the French revolution brewing. At seconds, one considers modern-day politics…

With this passion for what is great and extraordinary, it cannot be wondered at that they are repelled by the vulgarity and frivolity in people.
Which is why I feel counterforces sometimes / often, against my Good Intent. Right?

Unless the action is necessary, unless it is adequate, I do not wish to perform it.
My motto entirely against Bureaucrats…!
I do not love routine. Once possessed of the principle, it is equally easy to make four or forty thousand applications of it. A great man will be content to have indicated in any the slightest manner his perception of the reigning Idea of his time, and will leave to those who like it the multiplication of examples.
Again, I concur. Fully. Hence, my visionary work does not fall under the header of the abovementioned bumblers. And now for the last one:

… but it has good healthful qualities in spite of them; not least among which a healthy disgust of Cant, and an aptitude to detect her in all the million varieties of her everlasting wardrobre.
Needs no comment I guess. Plus:

[Marker for the End of ~~life~~ reason; Foz]