Tag: Predictions

Leaders don’t stand up, but sit on it.

Or even, lay awake.
As real, actual leaders will not aim to please as big a crowd as possible by focusing on the (ever diminishing, as the group size (target) grows, by mathematical rule) average, or even trying to cater for that. Such ‘leaders’ are just ring leaders for mob rule which will in the end not only eat its children but also them_selves.

Leaders who succeed, in becoming Men (F/M/other) of State, elderly statesmen, are the ones that do not follow the outcry but seek solutions and then act on them, without having to revert to words first. Not even walking the talk, as they only walk.
And, equally important, not consult-and-then-dismiss differing views but consider those as they know them already. And ponder about the best solutions, hurting as little of the sea of other-stakeholder needs that suffer from the move towards a Pareto optimum away from the political (def.: ‘choice-related’) meddling, scheming-for-its-own-purpose (much sub-)mediocre compromises that achieve nothing because they fall short of pleasing anyone and come to late to address actuality — to arrive at such lameness of ‘solutions’ (quod non), much time has passed, in which the world has already turned beyond the original problems.

So, … don’t aim for acclaim. Think…

DSC_1026
[May be (much) better, but maybe better than usually considered…?]

Brave New World

Oh yes yet another sign that eBooks are in the end phase of destroying all mom-and-pop Brick paper-book stores, in e.g., this.

Which tells you that finally, the world is integrating some of the ‘disruptions’ into its culture and by doing so, at last making them a success — not in any other way, before …

Well, I’m off again for now, leaving you with:
DSCN1067
[ [ Concrete | jungle ]; Paris La Defense ]

A footnote to theses

Not to Theseus, however close.
But on the superfluence of latter-day (PhD- in particular) theses in printed form. Wouldn’t they be much better on-line, in a format with clickable hyperlinks ..? Wasn’t that what hyperlinking was ‘invented’ for ..!?
Why then still rely on the old ‘footnote’ reference system… If only b/c some geriatric referees still want to see their own name printed and care less or not at all about hits. With the democratization of even science, wouldn’t hit scores (Errm, weighted by the authority of the visitors …! How? We’ll figure something out) be a better validity measure?

Yes, of course this would require a backlog of old printed articles to be put on-line, including linking their reference lists. But this effort should (sic) be minute, compared to today’s paper production — I mean, the production of papers. And, in the end, needed anyway.
Oh, another inhibitor for the oldies: their references can now be checked automatically (I guess (appropriately)) and their assumed notoriety will be disclosed exposed for what it is — which may not be liked by all.

But then, on-line theses would be much better readable since the Definitions and Research Description parts might be separate html docs, split away from the core science content.

Many more advantages, and this:
DSC_0031
[No longer dungeoned but in Church, still stalactitic; Edinburg]

SocMed usage trends

FYI, some overview of SocMed platform usage, for your study and divertissement — did you already know them all, and what would this all mean for your strategy and 2016 tactics ..?
Plain from Aurelie Valtat, a very good read in its own right:
social-media-users-nov2015

So, … No Medium in the list, also no WordPress et al ..?
One would expect that, according to this:
Social-media-landscape-2015

So, … again … There’s no overview available for all media combined. You’ll have to puzzle and guess forward into 2016 … Good luck.

Mobile vision

Twas bryllyg, and ye slythy toves / Did gyre and gymble in ye wabe
The brilly side has deteriorated, unfortunately, due to the great many that don’t avail themselves of the proper tools for the proper usage. [A CEO with you, is still a CEO]

No, really: when the ultrahyperventilating crowd decided to warp-speed run after the ‘any platform’ and subsequently ‘mobile first’ crazes (duly so identified), they forgot that when something’s meant to be visually interpreted, all the visual clues need to be clearly enough visible in the first place. Which goes better on a large screen than on a little one, unescapably. In the same way that the humongously dumbed-down ‘models’ that bankers and like w…kers use, are over by a stretch in their simplification of reality (and, stupidly, then taken as normative, prescriptive rather than descriptive in intent), visual interfacing for the mob-ile users are oversimplified to the uselessness side. Why??

Because [ I say so ] and [ hypes go that way ]. Lazy evaluation.
Which leads to: Not one size is too small to fit any, but all sizes are made fit for the content purpose. Maybe not even display when the deep message can’t be captured in too small a message display ..?

A bit deep, or dense, maybe. Hence:
000005 (2)
[Circus, b/c you need bread; Oak Park old analog pic]

Big Data, Little Decision-making

Are you ready for the coming revolution? That is in the wings by way of the data deluge that will cripple your ability to accomplish anything because you’re overwhelmed with data (“information” quod non!) to act upon in masses so vast you can’t even begin to use actionable results from analysis of it in a way that actual decisions are reached, communicated, and put into actual action.
Yes, yes, some of you will say that AI will arrive just-in-time to save the day. But that is much more wishful thinking out of fear than realistic futuring. And no, the exponential growth of data cannot be caught up with by exponential growth of AI capabilities and -spread before you’ve drowned.

Anyone see a way out, other than just ignoring or stifling data growth until by the skin of our teeth we can continue..?

Oh well, this:
Kopie van DSCN7982
[Reckon you’ll win ..!? in Berlin]

Predictions Wish List 2016

Now that you have drowned in predictions about … < fill in your favourite subject and colour the pictures > for 2016, it’s time to not only read through them and see whether you can agree — which you don’t need to as the truth is already here — it’s time to turn your Yes I Can See That / No I Don’t Think So into something of the more outspoken kind, not being outspoken but outwritten. As follows (mine, hence, yours if you’re smart…):

  • Blockchain (-like) methodologies and technologies delivering an app that shakes up the accountancy industry so thouroughly that the Big$/4 halve in size and influence (even further).
  • A breakthrough in the translation of Information to Value and vice versa, by means of being able to have the value of information one processes, on the books. Not necessarily in monetary terms, but somehow, comparable.
  • Some form of APT management/containment methodology.
  • A unified implementation/interoperability / API / management framework for IoT. Open, all-encompassing, like the OSI stack.
  • A breakthrough in the sobering up over the quod non of normative value of SOx/TLD/Basel-OpsRisk and all standards (ISO and others).
  • Similar, a sobering up (but deepening and intensifying for the solutions part) over cyberhere, cyberthere, cybereverywhere.

OK, going out into 2016 (not just yet!) with:
DSCN8004
[On a winter’s day … how many wished for unification of this city, mere decades back?]

Prediction16

Yawn. Or not. The following will get real serious in 2016. Like,

Well, for the list with everything and their dog:

  • Some Exits: Green Egg, ‘Cyber’everything, disruption/uberization, privacy, and, certainly and very much hopefully, “Like us on Facebook” … and very, very certainly hipsters let alone their ‘beards’ (quod non).
  • Entrat to replace the latter, hopefully, some actual non- or anti-bureaucratic frameworks of mind.
  • Also out, to be replaced by … [as yet unknown]: Vlogging or what have we, in socmed space, with 100k-1M+/++ followers as being he thing to aim for. As it becomes clearer and clearer in 2016 that only the 10M+/++ leaders (??) can make a dime from it, or barely a living. Who are the big winners, in all of this? User data / experience farmers?
  • Risk Management 3.0 will grow to be the Next Thing in managementspeak. If you’d need any proof, go read back the ton of posts on your perennial Truth site.
  • Also, we might get a last blip from SMAC(T) as a trend summary.
  • All of the points made by The (some) Man. Obviously. And some of this as well though this may all show to be overblown.
  • Still a wave of interest in Rise of the Robots. Combined with AI through and through, like in this. With support at an angle, from this.
  • A further blend of cloudsourcing and deperimetrisation putting your infra and all of your data naked and out there in the cold.
  • Oh almost forgot: A lot more on APTs, 3D printing (when will we finally get 4D printing …!?), MehhDrone stuff, blockchain, IoT, et al.
  • But we may hope, the latter two get much more innovative applications; one the one hand with simpler explications, on the other, truly innovating e.g., into the DAO realm.
  • Ah, DAOs; let’s first see more of this in 2016.
  • Offering a simple list copy from HBR:
    • Algorithmic personality detection: Yes
    • Bots: Yes
    • Glitches: Mwah; we indeed will see scores of them, ever bigger and more impactful (also b/c complexity explosions of the mixed e and physical worlds), but they’re somewhat of the mehhh category for the purpose of Here.
    • Backdoors: See APTs et al; much more of them yes but again, mehhh
    • Blockchain: As mentioned
    • Drone lanes: Hmmm, interesting…
    • Quantum Computing: Probably hung in there from previous (many) years’ lists; mine, too. May, might, but for the same token may not
    • Augmented knowledge: Definitely. Hopefully, in a good way. But maybe even hopefully, steered towards safe use, after a hopefully indicative but small-enough dystopian-style mishap ..?
  • CloudIAMming. IAM, renewed, for federated use in ‘the’ cloud. Yes, this will have a whole new lease of life, as a management field, and a consultancy field as well.
  • This just in: Forgot to mention VR as a thing in 2016. Definitely.
  • I may want to do an update halfway through the year…
  • Oh, and of course our motto for 2016: A CEO with you, is still a CEO.
    #gosubstitute[ _X, _Y | fool, a tool ]

After which there’s only:
DSCN7943
[Purposefully unsharp. Berlin, some years ago.]

Game season

Sooo… We have a new game console on the block. Let’s see whether the new boy will persist.
This, after:

But which may translate to a double jump, from classic TV via Netflix to this new blended thing where even much more than nowadays, categories (like ‘news’ or ‘nature documentary’) no longer apply. Where will the Authoritative (news) Sourcing community go, even when it may shrink and dwindle into little if any size or significance? Juvenalis’ bread and circuses the world will be.

Well, anyway, we’re storming towards that. And this:
DSC_0042
[Gloomy, waving your Freedom goodbye; still at NY]

IoThreat level rising

Oh the waxing and waning of the security (or not) that we understand and can see. In, traditional, actual security versus stupid’s attacks with AK-47s.
Oh the failure to see that the vulnerability surface grows much quicker, unseen, out of sight; and only partially, backlogging style, being managed somewhat. This surface expansion being in IoT, as the current implementations (in two ways, labelled such or not…!) are spreading much faster than the awareness, let alone proper implementation of, security is.

And oh yes, some are concerned. But their concerns appear to remain Boy Cried Wolfs compared to the clear and present dangers, that may be much smaller, qua chance and/or impact, than IoT risks. As in the physical, the class break aspect seems to be considered and covered reasonably well, by natural countering culture, the same may not be said about B/Society-CM planning for class breaks in the IoT sphere. Maybe already WWIII would be fought with sticks and stones (Einstein’ish).

Oh well. This post will not change the world. But still, be warned, and/or Be Prepared. And:
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[Maybe pray. For luck. Or salvation. Not your common altar piece; Noto]

Maverisk / Étoiles du Nord