Category: Predictions 2014

We Need New Sixties

Just an off the cuff remark. We need new Sixties. The world of totalitarian bureaucratic control, in business and in governance (if you’d reply that there’s governance in business as well, take a hike. With due apologies, that was putting it diplomatic already), has come to an end. It has failed to deliver the global commons cooperation required to deal with planetary issues. More of the same will not do.

Oh, if only we had the Sixties all over again, where old (political informal) structures were attacked by a very select very few opponents… That in the end quickly converted to being maybe even worse that their predecessors. Um.

That is why all of you should be wanting to have a translation of Tegen Verkiezingen
9200000007452360
[Get it. That’s an order or in the alternative a recommendation]

Yes, yes, working on a Book by Quote post indeed [to be posted per 25/8]. But would be in Dutch.
And, after an initial euphoria of recognition of many lingering ideas, I found some solutions still wanting. So, when I do the follow-up reading of referenced and secondary literature, do you help develop the many loose ends ..? E.g., relations with the decline of information/communication costs and -troubles so we can do so much more (not physically, not-physically) close interaction as to make all the nation sit around the old oak tree ..? In a systemic, structural, and operational way of development, e.g., through Internet voting with all the safeguards..?

Crowdjustice

Wellicht zullen gevestigde belangen (weer ten onrechte … DNB-kneuterpietluttigheid-waarschijnlijk-uit-doodsangst-uit-onbegrip (hoewel dat d… terecht, en gewenst?) vs California State…) gaan waarschuwen voordat de vergelijking met de huidige feitelijke situatie voldoende fundamenteel en objectief is gemaakt, maar dit is natuurlijk een interessante nieuwigheid; crowdsourcing justice. En voor degenen die jury-rechtspraak iets engs vinden wat wat de boer niet lust, leze nee bestudere dit werk eens.
Plots komt zo veel samen… Vreugde alomom zo veel culturele vooruitgang.

[Edited to add: Zie de post van 25 augustus 2014…]

En dus een vrolijk:
000013 (17)[Kan dubbel zijn, swa]

Postdictions 2014-II

A progress report on the Predictions 2014 I made in several posts here, at the end of Q2.

First, of course, a picture:
DSCN1023
[New then, outdated now, La Défense]

So, there they are, with the items collected from several posts and already updated once before in this:

Trust Bitcoin may be in this corner, covering a lot of this subject [edited to add: it’s now legal in California ..!]. Also, Heartbleed pointed out our dependency on ‘anyone but us’ in actually checking/testing open source software like OpenSSL, and the trust placed in the great many low-level bits and pieces that make up ‘the’ Internet (connections).
[After publishing, I’ll cross-post my ISSA Journal column on this, as a post] —> [Here it is]
Identity Facebook allowing anonymous (fake) identities. Users deleting posts from socmed, and switching to ephemeral messaging (Snapchat et al.). The European Court ordering Google to delete histories at request. (The semantics of) identity proceeds to being manageable…
Things Moving into a focus, vanguard of Sensors. And the Glass successors are surfacing. Earables here …
Social Movement all around; with a focus on privacy as in my May 30th post.
Mobile See Things.
Analytics Wow, this one’s moving into the Through of Disillusionment quickly! Now get it to jump out at the other hand, as quickly.
Cloud Mehhh, indeed. Still. The focus shifts towards actual security implementations, and control over that. On the Slope of Enlightenment, I’d say.
Demise of ERP, the Dude, these platforms aren’t even audited otherwise than by the most boring of boring routines – anyone interested in things other than pure dry deadwood, are working on other things.
InfoSec on the steep rise Even if we haven’t seen enough on this!

On APTs: We’ve seen Heartbleed come. And not go. This being just a mere incident, incidental symptom…
On certification vulnerabilities: See the previous. Check.
On crypto-failures, in the implementations: Some minor Bitcoin stuff, not too much else.
On quantum computing: – still not too much –
On methodological renewal; as it was: I blogged about this (re Rebooting CIA and OSTMM). Some progress here and there, but no ✓ yet.
Deflation of TLD Really out of sight even in the most dull accountant’s circles.
   
Subtotal Already clearly over 80% as we speak, when discounting for some fall-back here and there.

The faint of heart wouldn’t necessarily want to speak the bold characters out loud.
See you at the end of Q3 ..!

[In repeat, to add:]
Missed in the predictions ahead of time, but still worthwhile to watch: Google’s move towards banking via Gmail … as per this story, as commented ‘ere.

Postdictions 2014-I

A progress report on the Predictions 2014 I made in several posts here, after Q1.

First, of course, a picture:
DSCN2671
[Skinny thumbs up]

So, there they are, with the items collected from several posts:

Trust Well, there’s the demise of Mt Gox as Bitcoin exchange. All of Q1 was full of Bitcoin, anyway. Yes, that’s about Trust. And, by the way, ‘total chaos, 386 coins stolen, experiment imploded’ it is ..?

Identity – Nothing in particular yet –
Things Oh so much; with domotics DIY packages ads being aired on national TV (at least, here in NL), with wearables developing ever further. Etc.
Social – Nothing in particular yet –
Mobile Apart from the phablet developments I wrote about earlier already, there’s Facebook bying (sic) Oculus. Yes that will change a lot. And oh, the wearables I mentioned above go under this header as well. Wristdevices aren’t even exiting anymore. GGlass turned out to be pilot prototyping, the spawn has happened already.
Analytics The Wave of People versus Algorithms I predicted earlier, is slowly growing, not in the wings anymore. We’ll see a lot in the next quarters of this. By way of labour market shortages for the right skills, and, a Wave at an angle: The rise again, this time for realz, of Artificial Intelligence. Watson in your mobile, etc.etc.
Cloud Mehhh, indeed. But with Google, and Amazon, nixing price levels just this last week, we’ll see a new wave of projects, by big corporates, SMEs, and individuals, into this realm. Though next quarters will also bring ‘clarity’ (incidents) on continuity risks.
Demise of ERP, the This one was in an afterburner prediction. But yes, we see it. Less and less jobs require knowledge of this (one major player), it’s by and large legacy. Heard an anecdote of a Fortune 500 or even 10 company that spent some ballpark $1B on their installation, and counting for maintenance and continued-necessary upgrading. Would’ve been a nice budget to build your own, perfectly tailored system… even including documentation, training, maintenance etc., you’d have quite a penny to spare.
InfoSec on the steep rise Even if we haven’t seen enough on this!

On APTs: The recent news that the NSA stole about all trade secrets, emails etc. etc. of Huawei, that is now by and large ‘known’ to have input backdoors in just about every piece of equipment shipped; spying back and forth is becoming the New Normal. APT by definition.
On certification vulnerabilities: – some news, not much; stays in the wings –
On crypto-failures, in the implementations: See Mt Gox. Yes, it was an implementation error (of a serious kind) that downed the exchange.
On quantum computing: – not too much –
On methodological renewal: I blogged about this (re Rebooting CIA and OSTMM). Some progress here and there, but no ✓ yet.
Deflation of TLD Yes of Three Lines of Defense and similar überbureaucratic models for models’ sake. We’ve even seen a little discussion on 5LD pop up. To demonstrate its ridiculousness. Nobody wants to work here anymore.
To contrast; some search company’s new Amsterdam offices: http://nydn.us/Qhe346
Subtotal Close to 80% as we speak.

The faint of heart wouldn’t necessarily want to speak the bold characters out loud.
See you at the end of Q2 ..!

[Edited immediately, to add:]
Missed in the predictions ahead of time, but still worthwhile to watch: Google’s move towards banking via Gmail … as per this story, as commented ‘ere.

On APTs

DSCN4198
[Easy to get in. Valencia]

Suddenly, an uproar over this Mask APT that appears to have been around for seven years. Oh. Not much of an uproar. Also not over this.

Some may remember my prediction, from way back i.e. two months ago [not even going to put in links; just browse the Predictions category of posts], that 2014 would be the year of APTs, among others. Now, I almost feel that it isn’t 2014 but just January. Too bad!

Or, if you would want to shed light on this, do comment.

Bandwagon stuff


[Tension through perspective angles not being perfect; near AMS]

As in this text; just ½ a % into 2014 and our prediction is reiterated with some force. Seems like we may have predic’hinted at something that actually may happen this year.

Hey, we’re already ½ a % through 2014 and I haven’t seen news on anything ‘cyber’ yet. Let’s keep it up! And let’s have a hard laugh about those faux wannabe hipster beards. Aren’t they so last year!

The Up-Ramp


[Utreg once again]
May your 2014 be the up-ramp to an even more worthwhile life.

And, one more prediction, almost after-the-fact’ly…: News about social media will slowly cease to be news. Ergo, it’ll be niche news (albeit by the truckload), on all sorts of socmed application, that we’ll see so much of in 2014. Outright socmed introductory stuff, will be for the leggards. Business(wo)men, etc.

In comes this (in Dutch); ‘nuff said. All candidates for my Wired/tired/expired list.

Maverisk / Étoiles du Nord