All against all, part 1

Tinkering with some research that came out recently, and sometime(s) earlier, I had the idea that qua fraud, or rather ‘Cyber’threat analysis (#ditchcyber!), some development of models was warranted, as the discourse is dispersing into desparately disparate ways.

The usual picture suspect:
DSCN2891[Odd shape; maybe off-putting as a defense mechanism ..!?]

First up, then, an extended version of the matrix I’ve been presenting lately, about offense/defense characteristics. Just to expose it; would want to hear your feedback indeed. (Next up: The same, filled in with What the attacker would want to get out of it, information-wise. After that: Strategy, tactics commonly deployed; rounding off with least-ineffective defense postures (?))

Fraud matrix big part 1

To watch(ed)

Hmmm… We should all watch out for this here documentary (Yes. Really.), and then have a look back at the great many leads up to today that went before it, like here, here, since some five years ago by yours truly, and many other(s). But now, with this team on it, will it break through ..?

I have something to celebrate today; will leave you for now with:
??????????
[Heraclites: All is in transit or in DC]

Risk of being Duds

Wow, the new year starts of with … failure. I mean, apart from your inability to keep your New Year’s resolutions (already – if you need such a specific date like Jan 1 and the motivation of a ‘fresh start’ which, on the whole, it isn’t since calendars were invented as easy shorthands not life (so exactly) defined turning points) to change habits, … why didn’t you just change when the need arose ..? You’d be much further with it – the year is really off to a traditional start when failures of the past, are repeated ad nauseam… [As interlude: No, writing shorter sentences isn’t and wasn’t on any of my resolutions’ lists…]

Which one might expect from less-clear thinking professions. Though this post isn’t meant to address the precious few, the exceptions to the rule, I do mean ‘accountants’ and ‘IT-auditors’ (IS auditors that don’t understand) to be among those. That, apart from the slew of other vices you can easily sum up, tend to instruct others to do risk analysis this way:
R6 model
Yeah that’s in Dutch but you probably can make out the (actual) content and meaning. Being that the risk analysis is (to be) carried out top-down indeed, analyzing how lower layers of the model will (have to) protect against risks in the layers above, after the controls at any layer may have failed to ‘control’ the risks… [About that ‘control’ quod NON: See this here post of old.]

See? This just perpetuates the toxic myth of top-down analysis. The more one would follow this model, the more deluded one’s risk estimates would become… And this is proposed to lead the way in financial audits…
If you think this limits the Spectre of errors – this thinking permeates, and will permeate, the audit / inspection environment, leading to ‘Sony’. Yes, this erroneous thinking is at, or near, the root cause of that mess-up. [Anyone has seen proof that the NK actually did it, I mean, not the ‘proof’ trumped up by the most biased party ..?]

Whereas a bottom-up approach would show all the weaknesses that would create logically impossible effectiveness of higher-up ‘controls’. Controls just aren’t put in place to build a somewhat reliable platform to build higher-order controls on… Controls are put in place to try (in vein) to protect same-level risks throughout, as well, and higher-level controls were (are; hopefully not too much anymore) put in place to try to protect against all the lower-level controls failures not remediatable there… [‘Mitigation’ as the newspeak champion]
Hence, the distribution of error ranges (outside the acceptable sliver in the middle of the distribution of, e.g., transaction flows – hopefully that sliver is the intentional one) is ever wider the higher one goes in the ‘model’.

Rightfully wrecking your approach to financial audits, where not the risks of misrepresented true and fair views are managed, but the risks that the auditor is caught and found guilty of malpractice by not doing the slightest bit of the checking promised. ‘Assurance’ hence beginning with the right first three letters. Risk management to cut down the enormous workload (due to the overwhelming risks percolating up the model, as in reality they do..! hence having to check almost everything) to nicely within the commercial cutthroat race-to-the-bottom budget which is supplanted with ridiculously attractive (by bordering(!?)-on-the-fraudulent hourly rates) consulting business.

Now, the only hope we have is that the R6 model will not spread beyond … oh hey, googling it returns zero results – let’s keep it that way! Let’s not follow BAD guidance…

Jeez… And that’s only two of 124 pages of this

I’ll leave you with …
20141101_155144[1]
At the door to
20141101_160525[1]
– if you know what these are, you know why they’re here…

Postdictions 2014-IV and Final

A progress report on the Predictions 2014 I made in several posts here, at the end of the year. So, going for final verdicts. And quite a score and end result…
I gathered some evidence, but probably you have much more of that re the items below. Do please raise your hand / comment with links; I’ll attribute my sources ;-]

First, of course, a picture:
20141027_131258_HDR[3]
[Yes this one one more time, as the future’s the flip side of the past …]

So, there they are, with the items collected from several posts and already updated several times before hence I’ll just highlight a few things:

Trust ✓ And double-check. Maybe the issue slowed in attention over the course of the year, but… intermediate and final kickers make this one a true ✓
Identity Hmmm, recurrent issues with strength of pwd methodologies, but for the rest… oh there’s XYZcoin with its trust-through-maximum-distribution-and-maximum-anonymity …! ✓
Things Oh absolutely ✓ Or you’re surfing blind. Is that an expression, yet ..?
Social Ello, Viv, etc., and for the rest, it has all been Business As Usual. Which makes it a ✓
Mobile Has truly gone to the Expired phase when all-platform(-agnostic) design has come and gone as a hype and has turned into a basic requirement. ✓
Analytics After the evangelists, now into the BAU lands. ✓
Cloud Mehhh! ✓ It’s Docker that will be next year’s Thing. Note that.
Demise of ERP, the Have almost heard nothing let alone ‘exiting’ about this. So ✓
InfoSec on the steep rise Even if we haven’t seen enough on this!

On APTs: Almost the only interesting thing aaround, still. ✓
On certification vulnerabilities: In hiding. Still there. Ssssht, will hit. Suddenly. ✓ without you knowing it.
On crypto-failures, in the implementations: Quite some news in the underwires… you may not have noticed, but the in-crowd has. Definite ✓
On quantum computing: – still not too much – which is something of a surprise. No ✓ here. Despite this late entry.
On methodological renewal; as it was: Some progress here and there, close to a ✓
Deflation of TLD As per ERP above. ✓ as the logical and methodological failures have prevented anyone to attach oneself to it for risk of looking dumb. Except for the ones still clinging to it, where the risk has materialized…
Subtotal Well, let’s call it an off the cuff 95%+, being an A+ indeed.

The faint of heart wouldn’t necessarily want to speak the bold characters out loud. And my nerw predictions are out there already; see the December 9th post.
Which leaves me to a link that you may want to get for me, for ‘winning’ my own predictions contest. Thank you!

Not yet one IoTA; Auditing ‘technology’

[Apologies for the date/time stamp; couldn’t pass.]
First, a pic:
20140226_113554
[Classy classic industrial; Binckhorst]

Recently, I was triggered by an old friend about some speaking engagement of mine a number of years back. As in this deck (in Dutch…).
The point being; we have hardly progressed past the point I mentioned in that, being that ‘we’ auditors, also IT/IS auditors!, didn’t fully adapt to the, then, Stuxnet kind of threats. (Not adopt, adapt; I will be a grammar and semantics n.z. on that.)
As we dwelled in our Administrative view of how to control the world, and commonly though not fully comprehensively, had never learned that the control paradigms there, were but sloppy copies of the control paradigms that Industry had known for a long time already, effectively in the environment of use there. As in this post of mine. Etc.

But guess what – now many years later, we still as a profession haven’t moved past the administrative borders yet. Hence, herewith

A declaration of intent to develop an audit framework for the IoT world.

Yes, there’s a lot of ground to cover. All the way from classification of sensors and networks, up to discussions about privacy, ethics and optimistic/pessimistic (dystopian) views of the Singularity. And all in between that auditors, the right kind, IS auditors with core binary skills and understanding of supra-supra-governance issues, might have to tackle. Can tackle, when with the right methodologies, tools, attitude, and marketing to be able to make a living.

Hm, there’s so much to cover. Will first re-cover, then cover, step by step. All your comments are welcomed already.
[Edited to add: Apparently, at least Checkpoint (of firewall fame oh yes don’t complain I know you do a lot more than that yesterday’s stuff; as here) has some offerings for SCADA security. And so does Netop (here). And of course, Splunk). But admit; that’s not many.]

Clustering the future

Was clustering my themes for the future of this blog. Came up with:
Future trend subjects[Sizes, colours, or text sizes not very reflective of the attention the various subjects will get]
Low sophistication tool, eh? Never mind. Do mind, to comment. On the various things that would need to be added. As yes I know, I have left much out of the picture, for brevity purposes. But will want to hear whether I missed major things before I miss them, in next year’s posts. Thank you!
And, for the latter,
DSCN0924[Bah-t’yó! indeed]

SPICE things up, maturely

Where just about everyone in my Spheres was busy ‘implementing’ (quod non) all sorts of quality ‘assurance’ or ‘control’ (2x quod non) models, in the background there was quite some development in another, related area that may boomerang back into the limelight, for good reason.
First, this:
DSCN8573[Zuid-A(rt)sifyed]

The subject of course regards SPICE, or rather the ISO 15504 that it has turned into. Of the Old School of software development quality improvement era. Now transformed into much more…
In particular, there’s Capabilities instead of ‘maturity levels’.

What more can I add ..? Systematic, rigorous, robust, resistant against commercial panhandling. The intricacies … let’s just point to the wiki page again; ’tis clear enough or you need other instruction…

Lemme just close off with asking you for your experiences with this Standard…?

The two faces of digital transformation

A plain reblog from Esko Kilpi, on the future of information flow within the organization. Very thoughtful. If only you’d be allowed to read it and not be stuck in printed documents …

Players, sides, too many – where’s the (over)view?

Apart from the #ditchcyber aspects, in the (sometimes somewhat sportsy, even) battle about control, or is it temporary one-upmanship, over the world’s communications, so many parties play a role, in such varying sizes, and operating for so many sides, sometimes multiple sides at the same time, sometimes without even knowing that, with the interactions playing at various topics and levels of abstraction and with varying scopes, time horizons, strategies and plans (quality), I could really do with some clarity. Some mapping, interactive or not.
Which all was triggered by this post on yet another singleton developer taking on, inactively!, some well-funded TLA.

Will have to dive into the detail of it all, but know that I’ll end up losing the helicopter view. How many similar developments are out there, known or not? What stages of development, of deployment, of maturity, of starting to crack and leak are they all ..? It’s a hard life, this keeping up thing.

Hence, you deserve:
DSCN8926[As if moulded by a genetic algorithm, Porto]

Maverisk / Étoiles du Nord