Continuous AssuMining

… Where the process mining for overall assurance, as e.g., @ConeyDataDriven do so well, may spill over into straightforward data point assurance. Of sorts.
Because, when one has visual petri nets (well… sort of) at the transactions level(s) all through the systems, wouldn’t it be dead easy to have tallies at stores and flows, that can be reported on – and when audited in real time, given assurance on! – in all their shining minute detail as compared to the late, very late after-the-fact yes even after-the-full-year-has-ran-its-course annual figures.

This would of course require auditors to sit by all the information flows as they go, and have controllers at hand to correct any single transactions (and reporting) that go unwarranted ways. But hey, there’s tons of fees there, right? So it will happen. In one form or another.
More importantly: No need to keep on dwelling in XML/XBRL quagmires; that level of operational capability would need to be stable or one would lose out. Hence one can from some stage on assume that all transactions are indeed captured and passed through the systems interfaces at all (lower) levels OR some balances will fail – that’s what balances are for. Having established that, the bliss of control room overview will come to administrative(!!)-information flows:
Reliance - 4[Just plucked off the search results, for a refinery. But you get the idea…]

Would there be any roadblocks to this development? Your call.

Care-ful Carr

[In Dutch] Een boekbespreking…:

[Edited to add, this just in: Zelfs deze eminence grise denkt dezelfde kant heen…]

In zijn roemruchte artikel IT Doesn’t Matter (uitgewerkt in boekvorm: Does IT Matter?) maakte Nick Carr duidelijk dat de T van IT niet zo relevant (meer) is. Dit leidde tot een storm van protesten van degenen die baat hadden bij het behoud van het belang van de T. Steve Ballmer noemde het artikel “grote onzin”; hoeveel groter kan een compliment zijn ..? In de opvolger The Shallows (het Ondiepe) werkte hij dit verder uit naar een maatschappelijk niveau: Wij worden door gemakzucht van kritisch (diep) nadenkende burgers tot slappe oppervlakkige volgzame consumenten van informatie-fastfood.

In zijn nieuwste meesterstuk De Glazen Kooi (The Glass Cage) trekt Carr deze lijn door: Wij gaan als mensen daadwerkelijk anders denken; onze hersenen veranderen door de steeds verder doorzettende informatierevolutie. En anders dan bij de industriële revolutie zitten er steeds minder mensen aan de knoppen. We raken de regie kwijt…

Caar toont dit aan met een reeks van anekdotische, maar representatieve, voorbeelden. Waarbij hij telkens weer waarschuwt voor de degeneratie van onze hersenen en ons denken dat hierdoor wordt gestimuleerd. In wezen is dit dus een trendbreuk naar een negatieve spiraal, nadat de mensheid steeds slimmer was geworden. Afgezien van de vraag of de opwaartse lijn naar een Hegeliaans ideaal eindpunt voorheen überhaupt wel gold, zijn de tekenen van neergang nu onweerlegbaar voor de mensheid, net op het punt dat de Rede het van de mens gaat overnemen. Ondanks Carr’s onterechte idee door het hele verhaal dat machines nooit even creatief en weldenkend en … noem uw favoriete Menselijke eigenschap, zullen zijn als mensen – de uniciteit van de Mens telkens opnieuw zo moeten definiëren, is wél altijd al een terugtrekkende beweging gebleken.

Dit staat dan tegenover de optimistische visies van Kurzweil en anderen. Wie eerst De Glazen Kooi leest en daarna nog eens The Age of Spiritual Machines, zal zien dat de laatste toch wel wat naïef is… Beide naast elkaar houdend, lijkt het erop dat de dystopian visies op de Singularity en daarna, toch vooralsnog de beste argumenten hebben. Nu is het (ook) van alle tijden dat zulke negatieve visies de ronde doen. Carr weet dat, en is au fond ook niet alleen maar negatief – hij waarschuwt juist voor het gemakzuchtige idee van de optimisten dat er vast wel oplossingen voor de fundamentele ethische vragen van de nabije (sic) toekomst zullen komen én hij koppelt dat aan een oproep om in ieder geval op pad te gaan om die oplossingen met z’n allen te gaan maken. Niet afwachten dus, maar vormgeven.

Al met al is (ook) dit werk van Carr dus van harte aanbevelenswaardig. Omdat het geen juichverhaal is, en omdat het geen droefenis alom is. Maar een eye opener, één die ertoe doet en inzicht geeft, leert.

Afsluitend, voor de visuele ontspanning:
DSCN6719

Wired / Tired / Expired, December 2014 edition

DSCN0997
[What a Domènech i Muntaner masterpiece! Slept there, (private!) dined there. Both highly recommendable… Check out Mas Passamaner]

Yes here’s the December edition of my Wired / Tired / Expired jargon watch overviews, a mixed bag again. And, it will be the last in this form. Will switch to quarterly updates on what’s hot, and not. But then, still, for now:

WIRED TIRED EXPIRED
IoT security IoT Big Data
Even Stuxnet reappears. And there’s so much more… [To add: links to earlier posts, or use the search function it’s there not for nothing.] Yeah, we get the basics. Meh, we get the point (being: the center of a donut).
AI Self-driving cars Data analytics
It’s here and everywhere, suddenly. U-turned out to be not so self-aware as perceived earlier… More like semi-preprogrammed. Bandwagon stuff already, moving through the Trough of Disillusionment
Lightweight organisations Agile/robust organisations Certification
The kind of start-up that hires just about every service except for in-house employees (well, but a few, to coordinate – and do the pivoting and discovery inside the coordinating). Sourcing from just anywhere; they don’t care to even know where the sweatshop (mind-)labour is. Trying to turn around ULCCs by enforcing agility and robustness … top-down, hierarchically, using KPIs and other must-achieve performance numbers. Instead of … you know. Oh hey, we’ve got this sheet of paper up in the hall, now we’re safe and secure against all that the chaos of the universe may throw at us!
Sinterklaas Zwarte Piet Santa
The gift giver. Hence our #1. I’m sucking up by not a small bit here. Need to. The good (sic) guy(s) doing all the execution for the CEO. The CEO may not be around in tomorrow’s organization… As in this. The obese commercial patsy. Pure construct, no history, no veracity, no value.
Normally healthy Boring life healthy Tattoos
Taking a serious but Get Real approach to losing weight, detoxing, being fit, all in one great little step by little step, shave-off rather than lump-off program of not changing too much but at all sides at the same time. Crazily slimming down, etc., not sustainable and then bouncing back; in the long term, unhealthy and very unhappy bunny. Huh, now try to get rid of your big Error of judgement. No takedown like your Fubbuk pics, right?
Fighting the New Mediocre New Mediocre Conservatism
When Mme. Lagarde speaks out, it is worthwhile to take note… as here. Well yeah, Mehhh is always out of style. By which I mean, the not wanting to allow anyone to do their thing and be happy. Because it may make oneself look stupid and old, which is self-reinforcing in this way. Change will happen whether one fears and not wants it or still.

OK, any suggestions for next quarter’s (!) edition ..?

Jumping the aggre chasm

On the subject of individuality versus group aggregates. And where the characteristics just don’t add up because they do. As in:

  • Elections. Every vote counts, but no single one matters.
  • ‘Democratic’ (quod non) politics in general. Where one can only change things by joining political parties where your particular issue voice is lost, you are required to toe the party line on many (other) things against your ad hoc will and purpose, and parties end up not representing anyone in particular – no party has exactly all opinions right on all your issues, and in the end even parties don’t do as promised because they have to compromise.
  • Organizations. Where group think (is the) rule(s). Where all collectively are expected to behave individually. Or so. At the end of this.
  • Statistics. Where n times the average of n data points is nowhere the same as any of the data points. The statistician drowned in the river that is 1 ft deep on average. The average human has 1 nipple and 1 ball. Etc. [Let alone causality that is only implied in the human discourse, the Story, but has never yet been proven to exist. Philosophers’ stuff]
  • Mathematics (I). Where the greatest common divisor decreases rapidly as the number of elements increases.
  • Mathematics (II). Where there is a continuity ‘correction’ when jumping from discrete to real arithmetic.

But now, first, your pic of the day:
DSCN1315
[Also Girona, oft missed]

Which all reminds us of Ortega y Gasset’s rants against the hordes, the masses – his their Revolt is the fear of the shrinking greatest common divisor.

Which also reminds us of the perennial individual versus history movements when discussing innovation. One can go it alone but will not gain traction. Or (later) succumb to the pressure of joining others but losing something for the sake of being allowed to join. Hmmm, I feel there’s much more to be said here. But the bits margin on this blog did just not suffice. To be continued. In the mean time, I’d welcome your contributions to the above list …

Maslow for companies

Some first sketches of an idea that sprang to mind during some musings about (the feasibility of) schemes that classify maturity levels for companies, or organisations. The idea being that the common Maslow pyramid that, despite some critique here and there that usually points at critics’ misunderstanding of modeling and this model in particular, is still very much valid for establishment of personal preferences and comfort zones.
* Yes I do know the cultural variance in ‘it’.

But the idea quickly stalled due to lack of progress in the bottom layers of the OrgPsyPyramid – what comes first for e.g., start-ups; is that different for established organisations that are under threat of extinction due to disruptors and/or self-inflicted financial troubles ..? Is it market share (these days, a.k.a. active users), growth for growth sake, immediate positive cash flow (or the opposite; burn rate as a plume à l’honneur), or ..?

Hm, it’s time for:
DSCN5042[Tok’about old (?) and new classics]

The other layers, … will follow in a couple of weeks. Think traditional growth, market share, capitalization (or valuation), profits, foundation for longevity. But as we move up higher, as to be expected we’re entering the harder-to-understand regions, being the harder to define, implement and achieve ones too. If you would have some pointers to science already having been done; yes please I’d be happy to incorporate that. So, looking forward to your comments… (as if anyone would comment…)

From Sedlacek to accountancy

While going through Sedláček’s seminal Economics of Good and Evil – which should be a mandatory read for all economics, business, and audit (-of-all-sorts) students, I came across one part that struck me as possibly relevant for direct application in accountancy.
Oh but of course, there’s so great a many more parts that should be applied, the sooner the better. I’ll return one day, in the next couple of months, with probably a series of Book by Quote posts on the book, including some analysis and comments maybe this time. And by ‘direct application’ I meant application as useful underpinning undercurrent, root cause, in tha analysis, of what’s wrong with latter-day accountancy, helping as pointers towards possible improvement(s) there. The kicker is in the tail of this post …

First, this:
DSCN1004[According to legend, the exact spot (flag) where St. George slew the dragon, at the St. Jordi (of course) gate, Montblanc, Catalunya. Somewhat fittingly a bus stop 2 yards away, if you could make this post a similar exact slaying spot of accountancy’s woes ;-]

OK. To start. Sedláček has this chapter where a number of Value systems are lined up. On the far left is Kant, with the good-ness of a man’s actions being everything, regardless of the results. Next from the left towards the middle are Christian and Judean thought, and on with Aristoteles, Epicurists (which I think he interprets, and places, incorrectly), Hedonists and finally on the far Right flank, Utilitarians and Mandeville – Greed is Good or rather: only (!?) vice is good (for progress – and we all need that, right?). When reading this (and, as said, I don’t agree with everything there even taking into account Sedláček’s clear statement that the abbreviation may bend the correctness of content), something struck me:

What if, when, the utilitarians have kidnapped the meek of the middle-to-left; have made them believe that they could remain true to themselves in this hostile world, while at the same time the villains have isolated them from the real world and just harvest their proceeds?

[From here on, it gets contentious. Don’t be put off by what you might interpret as rebellious bluntness. I just have not sufficient time to write it all out in a diplomatic, friendly fashion – a diplomat is someone who tells you to go to heck in such a way that you look forward to the journey]
This, e.g., in the wider society where Jaron Lanier’s siren servers harvest all the data production that consumers do; promising benefits but keeping all the humongous moneys to themselves. And, as said, in accountancy, where the individual accountant (partner) is still allowed to believe (s)he works for the greater good of society, to be a really important cog in (economic) society’s good behavior machine. Where in the mean time, the leading partners (or the jump from individual to collective!) roam off all the vast margins and don’t care less about quality. The latter may sound coarse but considering the pressure on productivity levels and budgets, and considering the declared Holy goal of profit increase (second derivative!) …

Such kidnapping points at the improvements required in accountancy today, in particular re the ‘Big’ 4 their handywork for large organisations i.e. just signing off and caring less (proven) about the quality of investigative work done. The horror to think one would dig deep enough for root causes, that would only cost mo-ney…! and could set us up for confrontation with the client, even by causing the hassle or having to amend (processes – cumbersome and costly, and books – the same).

As stated, this may help in the current discussions about the ‘business model’ in accountancy in particular re the ‘Big’ 4. Where talk is of what the client is that should be served, and how to align payment accordingly. As now, in practice the Board, the very auditee, pays. Officially, the Board of Supervisors (Raad van Commissarissen) does, that in an ideal world would represent not only stockholders’ interests but also other stakeholders’; we live in not quite an ideal world where the RvC has to deal with Regulatory Capture if (not when) they’d be aware of that and would even be aware of the need to break the old boys’ networks. And even then, the client could be the RvC but paying the (external) accountant out of profits comes down to the Board registering that in the organization’s books after the best placed to understand and estimate, the Board, would negotiate the budget. In the end, the auditee pays. Who pays, stays. ‘Whose bread one eats, his words one speaks’ (Dutch). Despite the Good ones trying to maintain their independence, in appearance and practice; this shouldn’t be a struggle but an easy stable starting point not having to depart from or returned back to. Certainly not in public opinion..! But now, is troublesome.
Another option, to hire accountants via the insurance companies that insure the auditee organisations qua malpractice, may work but makes accountants dependent in other ways; insurance co’s aren’t philanthropic institutions and would have their own ways of setting budgets, not ex ante aligned with accountants’ societal interests first.

Thirdly, nationalization of accountants also pops up here and there again and again. Where all accountants – not; only the ones to audit organisations of societal interest – would then be allocated in some way or another to auditees. Regulatory capture and other distortions may readily start off in this mode as well; is this studied well enough? Though in this model, accountants with their legally protected task would earn much capped incomes in line with all (?) other civil servants like street cleaners and PMs.

And, of course, there’s the BOHICA approach.
Which might not even be that bad, if, IF paired with an introspection plus real change where the profit seekers are ousted (and not allowed to re-enter, through changed promotion paths) and the kidnapped are released. So that they can again do their best work, as virtuous (wo)men.

So, this above reasoning all the way from Sedláček to current accountancy business models, leads to the distinction of two different sorts of ‘Big’ 4 partners. Which in turn leads to the kidnap interpretation. Which, in turn, leads to changed promotion paths as way forward.

Aren’t we lucky that accountants know everything about true transparency … because that’s what will be needed when progressing with this. So that no lip service will be paid to these changed business principles.

But wait … all the above should not be news. And appears to be insufficient since, as accountants, the very few who actually do, discussed: shouting for ‘cultural change’ is just window dressing that in itself will not result in said change and may not prove to be doable, as goal. To put it very mildly. We may need more. Along the lines of Mandeville, where the Bad are allowed to exist, are required to exist but don’t tell them (no need), in order for the whole of virtuous society to benefit from them; if there were only virtuous citizens, society would come to a standstill until destroyed (from the outside, mostly).
What if we can devise a (business) model that would actually kidnap the despicable, the money grabbers, and turn them into the nible thrifty termites that we the virtuous ants could live off ..?
[Edited to add: This may require Piketty-style progressive taxes on specific professions, but would that be impossible ..? ‘t Might be done in-house in some way, e.g., by setting limits on the income range, the top 10% earning a max per person of … whatever, times the earning per person of the lower 20%]

I’ll leave you now. A much more extensive analysis may be in order of this subject. Which may or may not follow. In particular re the jump from (sum of) individuals to collective à la Ortega y Gasset and Brian (and followers); an oft overlooked but still Very Hard Problem. But your comments are welcomed already…:

Coining an answer; Bit-passports

The answer to the final question (“… why the governments didn’t invent this sooner,” he says. “I came up with this over a weekend in my spare time, why didn’t they? …”) in this here very interesting piece, is easy: Enrollment Problem Plus Risk Management.

But still, the idea of using Bitcoin crypto style solutions to the ‘international’ passport problem is useful, and might work. In some way. Not this self-certification one. If you’re aware of how long PGP has been around, you should be aware of all the failures of any form of tribal-cred-branching-out IDs.
And, a great many governments may just not have a sufficiently pressing need for a new passport scheme. The risks of the current model, are known and (again: apparently) manageable.

So I’ll leave you with:
DSCN1415[Apologising calmly. And frequently.]

Maverisk / Étoiles du Nord