Predictions – Page 14 – Maverisk / Étoiles du Nord

My Opia

Not being your topia anywhere or dys here topia or whatever.
Was struck by the surge in posts, columns, articles about security in IoT. Because it appears to indicate a need for a new index. Being on the level of myopia one needs, to understand the hype value (a la this). Or hyperopia (?). Or rather – what’s it called when one’s view is narrow, or broad ..? That was what I was after: With the above-linked Second-biggest G.’s Hype Cycle, one should have a perpendicular index of width/breadth of hype and/or potential impact. So that when one would consider oneself to somewhat suddenly be caught in relatively speaking the in-crowd of, purely e.g., IoT and IoT security/privacy issues that one has steered oneself into, it would come as no surprise that suddenly though with some lag, one sees the posts, columns, articles flying around on the same subject without any real news or rather more (for one!) Been There, Done That type of news reporting. For others, the news may be news…

A second aspect would be: How to position oneself. Doing hardcore research style environment scanning and reporting on that in traditional and SM media, would quickly become impossible as any field of study explodes in width and depth as it get off the ground, leaving the actual keeping up with all developments to be impossible. Even when your cutting edge development reporting wouldn’t catch on but with a few aficinados at the very most, and when you’d wait until aspects have crystallised to clarity far enough to be understood by your mainstream audience (if any), the subjects have a. watered down beyond being interesting to you, b. watered down beyond recognition still for your audience, c. still not yet reached interest-through-urgency / -news-value for them.

Whatever. Just an idea; any of your help in developing such a sight/scope index is very much appreciated…

In advance:

[Pretty close, no mirage; Segovia]

Hegelian Hybris

A short post for All, and for None. Whether you like it, or not.
If you got the reference (*sigh*; here, for the outitiated)
you may read on
Else
#include <complex.h>
Endif

Where there’s a line from the Classics, the pre-Socrates ones and later literary additions (like these, and this one and this one, and many others), straight towards Hegel. Overtaking Nostra, it would appear.
(Read on below)

[Where at …?]

But appearances may be deceiving. Though all the talk about the End Is Nigh And We Should Celebrate Because It’s The Singularity (beyond the rosy picture, blindly (sic) denying the dystopian view), indeed the Singularity is what Hegel dreamed of. History as the progress of Reason; pure, abstract, everywhere; everywhere overturning the other half of the Yin-Yang that the Everything is …
But then, not only can one not shut out the original Chaos force of nature part of Everything, and of humanity or it will boomerang back in your face (the more suppressed, the harder it detonates in unthinkably gruesome ways!), the Yin-Yang comparison is apt as each of the halves has a dot element of the other half in it.
And, it’s not only Eastern (huh, that’s a relevant reference isn’t it, on a globe…?) wisdom at the core that has this, but it’s the Greeks et al. as mentioned above, too, that demonstrate these principles over and over again in aptly named tragedies. Of humanity. Where catharsis comes too late. And the careful analyst learns that it’s not human emotion that has galloped beyond humility and due (Aristotelian) care, but reason dumbed down by overconfidence in its efficacy to rule over life. Commenting Hegel down quite a few pegs, very very anachronistically.

Because he (his straight path to Reason) doesn’t take into account the Yin-Yang. Because it doesn’t truly understand Hybris. As a human trait, on any side; not only on the Dionysian but especially (it seems, these days, again…) also on the Apollo side.
[I’m done with the wiki linking. Go figure it out yourselves if (big if) you’d have to.]

Oh well. History repeats. Just don’t fall for it. Remember; you’re scared when a couple of blocks down the street there’s a big kitchen fire. You’re not scared about the Sony hack – see that you should, given that on the ‘net it’s closer to you than that kitchen ..? Same, with the jobs that will be gone in a decade (and your kids are still learning how to do them) whereas it’ll affect your current job as well. Even Uber drivers picking up the morsels handed out by algorithms à la the new middle managers, are going to be replaced with self-driving cars. Etc.
Be Prepared. (Luck favours the prepared.)
And keep an eye open for the future; you’ll have to live there. Better make it comfy – yourselves! for yourselves, for the global village that society has become (no more isolation and dropping the collateral damage elsewhere possible, with global environmental effects). Physically, and mentally. As above.

The Year of SocMess

Yes it’s becoming clear now, if you hadn’t had this on your radar yet from scanning to tracking, that certainly the first half of 2015 will be the Year of SocMess – Social Messaging. Breaking through as a separate category, since SocMed as in the Platform-collecting-all-your-data-for-sale-to-the-prime-examples-of-shadiness kind, think Facebook, will quickly diminish and the Anon apps will spring forward. Where the Anon aspects (as per this explanation and others) may differ, but they all’ll have a mix of the elements that make part of the comms anonymous. Really. As otherwise, they wouldn’t be in this category, right?

And indeed, of course, I wrote ‘part of’ not for nothing.

This development will be interesting to follow. As it mixes with the development of in-crowd apps (that have been around already for a number of years!) where exclusivity is ensured either by limited invite-onwards capabilities or central control over extension.
And there will also be the development in the mix where follower-numbers will stratify further, so we’ll have more 1%-99% skews between interest-pinnacles and the hordes of followers blabbering Likes of all kinds – or flipping into hater gangs.
And, … even more … Subgroups, interests and subcultures emerging to dominate platforms (errr… socmed apps), crowding out others, leading to verticals qua interests segments, and some probably unwantable forms of social exclusion and ‘xenophobia’ where if you’re a n00b you may not be let in on discussions. Kindergarten playground style, but that’s how many (not so, or literally still hardly) grown-ups are.

And on top… The platform providers will battle it out, too, deep under water, where Docker, Google Cloud, Amazon, iCloud, et al., will vie for prominence.
And, the IoT/Appmix will extend. Uber was a quicky, likely to meddle forward in 2015 but the prime has been lost on that one. And Lyft will trail. So will domotics like Nest et al. But, the extend part will be there, with a range of new apps in this area, for functions you still now haven’t even thought of to be handled in this way.

Didn’t I forget to add a little Apple in the mix? No, since there will be hardly anything to mix in, A-wise. Or it be the deterioration of MacBooks’ revenue [Edited to add: Same for iFoan] leading to an emperor in ‘new’ clothes qua prospects, market value and future…

OK, I understand it’s all a bit much, and comes quite late, as predictions for 2015 [Edited to add: apart from these I posted previously; somewhat overlapping], but nevertheless, this all was required to be spelled out for you. Which leaves:
DSCN1382
[Smells like 4711 spirit…]

To watch(ed)

Hmmm… We should all watch out for this here documentary (Yes. Really.), and then have a look back at the great many leads up to today that went before it, like here, here, since some five years ago by yours truly, and many other(s). But now, with this team on it, will it break through ..?

I have something to celebrate today; will leave you for now with:

[Heraclites: All is in transit or in DC]

Going out / in

A final note … was meant to have some celebratory spirit. But maybe it’s also a looking-back bit in a sense, if you read between the lines; of the mess we’ve made of the world.
But then, it is a view on the actual, concrete and very Urgent problems we face in the near future, from (?) the here-and-now. So… read, and revel in the prospects of real societal progress that is possible – if all of us chip in and do something. Go ahead!

[In Strasbourg, this part of a Solution was there long before the big part of the Problem was started there and in Burssels…]

Progress at the other end

On state of the art innovation – at the lowly (!?) end of programming.

I mean, it’s not rocket science; it’s quite a bit harder to pull off. To produce something decent though that seems to have gone lost in these überagilescrum times of putting apps out before anyone has a clue what they’re intended for. What problem they’d have to solve, for a large enough audience to care. Yes, it seems that “If you’re satisfied with your product at launch, you’ve launched too late” is all the rage now. But to win over the world, over Fubbuck, to win over all the big organisations still out there (and will be there, for decades to come, and will still have the power i.e., money, to dwarf others’ interest when they put their mind(s) to it), one would need decency in the product, hence also in the coding.

But then, there’s this dark and shady epitome-of-big-org backed initiative called Pliny to help out. We’re interested. As it may, when it will deliver results, help towards better programming practices.

By introducing predictive text to low-level core programming.
But I also see other potential use for its ideas, towards:
Better coding, pre-emptively less buggy, by using in-line sanity checks on whatever is put out. It says this in the linked article indeed, but only in passing – whereas I’d say this is an important improvement opportunity in its own right.
Better re-use of code. When context and (machine level) interpretation of intent is gathered anyway, why not map and match that intent to the existing code base? Through that, lots of pre-programmed, debugged and efficienced (hey I didn’t want to break up the sentence rhythm with ‘made efficient’ oh what am I doing now) routines, re-use could skyrocket and the most hideous issues of non-reuse as listed at the Daily WTF may be prevented.

Would these three be worth it ..? Of course it will. They will raise low-level coding up quite a bit, upping the Lean And Mean Coding Machine sweatshops to greater productivity and hence, to quicker full-scale and mature products. And make all the app bungling less interesting, hopefully. Maybe even making all the stuff more secure. But that … waaay too much to ask for. (?)

To round off:
[Hi DARPA in your dark fortress!
Oh, not you, your supposedly-opponents-but-in-your-pocket Big G houses here]

Predictions 2015

So… The End is Nigh. Hence, my predictions for beyond it.

As 2015 is about to kick off, herewith my predictions of what happen in Internet / IT land, as notable in the global society, being part of my mind frame. Or so.
To not make things too difficult to understand, I’ve assembled a mixed bag of abstract notions and concrete(ly noticeable) stuff that will happen, interlaced with all sorts of fancy graphs and dull pictures – to make you think not applaud sheepishly. Think, think first, deeply, and then still agree with the clairvoyance of:

A first easy start: The development of Appl. [censored] stock as a systemic risk to the (financial and other) world. As the 1 trillion dollar mark approaches, how much would a stock need to corner the market in terms of risk ..? In particular when it will turn out to not be hip anymore somewhere during the next year:
Another of this kind: Docker. As explained before on this site, this underpinning of cloud-to-cloud portability, now backed by all the major brands and a bunch of others as well – those not in, to fall off the bandwagon, hard! –, will surface as a big-time hype catchphrase and will even get implemented quite extensively. Though the latter will remain under the surface for most outcrowd.

Aie oh Tee. Yes, as it rallied to the fore already in 2014, but will now burst out in earnest. After Kurzweil’s agenda, despite Carr’s, and beyond the nerdy early innovators’ adoptions. For the various directions that IoT will develop in, see this here earlier post. These streams will become more distinct next year.
- At least, the ‘domotics’ / wearables markets will come to full steam, in particular as retrofitting becomes easy and invisible.
- Security and audit (vendors racing to lead the former, you may thank and reward me in advance for the latter) over IoT of all kinds, will rapidly improve. See below.
- AI will get integrated. Because reasons. Being:
  
  [Useful if not when you understand what’s going on here, both (!) story lines]
Disruptions: In particular the unsettling decentralization ones. Like:

Where grassroots sharing on either the supply side, the demand side, or both, will rule.
OR the Amazonian style of Big Corp obliterating the defenseless old, may intervene.

AI. A big, very big one in 2015 – whether you like it or not, the Kurzweillian happy go lucky augmented-humanoid buds will come to fuller bloom next year.
- E.g., the above trolley problem and similar ethical and philosophical questions will be discussed profusely, hopefully delivering some twists and turns that settle parts of the problems. All of them, probably cannot be resolved once and for all; the Gödelian knots in them, are systemic and no re-definition of the problems may prevent that. FACT. But progress is there.
- And/or, there will be many snap-to-make-sense solutions coming out. Partly or fully automated [visual|speech]-to-[text|interpretation]-to-[information|action] will arrive on any device. Take this article as example of early stages; using spreadsheets – how Old School! but still pervasive ..!
- And many more applications. Like this. Big G’s X Labs is at full speed. And will come with many breakthroughs…
- Oh, even before this post aired, this here interesting development…
XYZCoin will continue to develop in the next year. Structures will emerge. Look for development in all the main sectors:
- Sorting of all the sorts of coins. Zippcoin may flourish. Litecoin, maybe. Others?
- Wallets (software wallets, and web/mobile wallets);
- Payment processors (payment service providers, and payment networks);
- Exchanges (xyzCoin exchanges, spot/forward exchanges, and stock exchanges);
- Borrowing and lending (peer to peer borrowing and lending, and bank-like borrowing and lending);
- Hardware and equipment development (for mining and ATMs);
- Investment vehicles (ETFs, trusts, venture funds);
- Other (binary options, casinos, microworks sites);
- Secondary and tertiary systems of cryptographic(‘ally provable’) unicity of IDs. This actually will be the Big One. As Zippcoin delivers a Basic Income in the economists’ sense. As DACs will do all sorts of strange things, hard to understand by most, easy to reel off in dangerous directions similar to quants having been ill-understood (at a deep, fundamental understanding/meaning level) in the financial derivatives world… And as explained here and here in its systems details.
  But then, if you’d claim to understand already, the following would be easypeasy for you to explain, right?
Security. Finally, something closer to home. Here, a natural modesty may cloud the actual vast progress. Like in:
- The spread of OSSTMM. More a gaining of ground. But from there, anything goes. ISO27k1:2013 may still go around, and will indeed have a major impact on the efficacy of InfoSec implementations – now, hopefully, where applied correctly (one fears in a precious few places only; the rest performing dismally), optimizing visibly and efficiently for maximum effect. But still, it will have to be augmented with OSSTMM(-style) concrete InfoSec business. Even when the compliance/certification Totalitarian-Bureaucrat mumbo-jumbo will continue.
- IoT security. Vendors are onto this now, mainly in the B-Internal and B2B markets (explained in these posts).
- Encryption of data by default, throughout. Quite an example of InfoSec basics spreading under the radar. Even socmed tools will incorporate this. Effectiveness (security levels achieved) may vary widely, but the attention is good. Very good.

OK. So far, so good. First, let’s celebrate the end of the year commemorative days, in a solemn and thankful, humble way. Then, party like it’s 2015 all the way. And, I’ll leave you with:
DSCN8963
[Not oft seen, at Viana do Castelo]

[Edited to add: I’ve upgraded the predictions a bit, and turned them into a PPT. Yeah, I can do More Slick but this: ISACA Zuid 2015 01 21 (in Dutch but you get it) is how it is…:]

Repeat: The Top 2000 or 2214 of 2014

[After apparently, some at @Top2000nl / @NPORadio2 decided that #Top2000 entries and votes were valid until yesterday this repost was in order – but the below had been out there, of course, as the definitive results already a month ago…]

OK … There it is: The definitive this year’s Top 2000.
Without argument or doubt, herewith…
First, downloadable in plain Excel, for your own tinker and play, in this file; checked and clean (no subversive content).

Next, a few little notes:

“That’s odd! The usual numbers 1 to 50 aren’t where they’re ‘supposed’ to be by common standards!” Correct. Because I‘m ‘Rekt. The list is mine; why put the Mehhh songs high up there? They’re in there somewhere, but its my list, my preferences..! yes I do like some almost-forgotten songs better, sometimes much, much better, than the expired old hands.
Especially.. see the notes, when the clip (much) enhances the song(s). Wouldn’t that mean the song in itself isn’t fully complete ..? No, it means in (since) the age of video, songs with clips (‘integrated’) can much surpass mere songs by themselves, for a cubed sensory experience.
There’s more than 2000 yes. Because, already after the first 500 or so, determining the relative rankings becomes awkward. Hence, the cut-off would be random …! (why not 2048, that would make more sense in this digital (i.e., binary) age).
If you would still have some (preferably wacky) songs you miss, please do comment them to me. I’ll see whether I’d want to include them still, or not. Hey, it’s my list so I decide, geddid?
When dabbling with the Excel file yourself, feel free to play around with the ranking mechanism. What worked for me, was to first split the songs into bins of about 250 size (designate some song to be in the first bin that will end up being ranks 1-250, another song to bin 5, which is around the 1000-1250 mark, etc.), then sizing down bin 1 etc. to 8 smaller bins. Then, numbers 1-50 get a personal treatment one by one to their end rank, the rest gets (got) a random allocation within their bracket. After this, sort and re-apply number 1-whatever. Through this, actual intermediate bin sizes aren’t too important.
Huh waddayakno, before the below is published, I have a Challenge for you: To give Frizzle Sizzle, Luv and Erik Mesie some rightful places. If you’re Dutch otherwise you might just not get it. Others, may include the B52’s somewhere; Love Shack. And DÖF’s Codo. ☺ and oops forgot Thomas Dolby.
[Edited to add: I’m now working on an extended list, with the How Could I Have Missed These!? so the total keeps rising. For next year’s list.]

Then, as a long, very long list. With a Moar tag otherwise it would be ridiculous… [i.e., for the complete list in the post, follow the link:]

Continue reading “Repeat: The Top 2000 or 2214 of 2014”

Clustering the future

Was clustering my themes for the future of this blog. Came up with:
[Sizes, colours, or text sizes not very reflective of the attention the various subjects will get]
Low sophistication tool, eh? Never mind. Do mind, to comment. On the various things that would need to be added. As yes I know, I have left much out of the picture, for brevity purposes. But will want to hear whether I missed major things before I miss them, in next year’s posts. Thank you!
And, for the latter,
[Bah-t’yó! indeed]