Predictions – Page 8 – Maverisk / Étoiles du Nord

Predicting fuzzy futures

As we approach another round of grand fuzziness in predictions of all sorts, e.g. for president’s elections in some corner of the world, it would be wise to not only take all (and I mean all) of Superforecasting to heart but also to consider helping extending the science of the trade.
By helping me out in finding pointers and content on, and subsequently developing on, the use of fuzzy logic in predictions. As ‘current’ truth values of future states of the world are all quite possible, and going forward even mutually exclusive states may, e.g. on some news, all become more likely, with combined likelihoods rising over 100%. Where FL can play a role to keep track. And we may have to revisit (practical use of) Markov chains with suitable noise-around-parameters built in… But let’s focus on FL first.
Of course, when the End Date, the horizon for some prediction timeslot nears, the choices will be driven to 100/0 — where the crazy idea of random selection (of ‘balls from a pot’) with replacement … with double replacement … [even tinkered with the idea of replacing the non-drawn colour with the drawn one every pick; was hard to think through] may come closer to the idea of starting with some hardly-educated guess and nudging either way on all news points as one goes along; doing a (much-)sort-of random walk from 50/50 to 100/0.

So, if you’d have info on the viability of either approaches, please do drop a note…! Already:

[Free city map dispenser; Delft]

At leisure

Musing with the ideas of yersteryear, where the working class had been replaced, gradually, by the ‘managing’ class in its various forms and sizes. But everywhere, productivity being misattributed. Though appearances would have it still among ‘managers’ too, their combined overwhelming bureaucratic bloat pressing on the carbon yet not achieving diamond productivity but gravel at most. While ‘managers’ (line just behind one’s heels!) get so much credit, unearned, and earn so much income and bonuses that it deserves the gallows; the workers ‘hence’ being mis- and disregarded.
When suddenly, the already next trend shone through: The move from the Leisure Class to the Leisure Cohorts.

Yup, you are now reminded of the massive shortfall in education that so many already have … that have flown into the workforce for years already — producing ..? Not the nice workspaces that they have to hang out in. Do they..? For how long still ..? And then ..? The generations that could actually be productive of any sorts, have seen their work shipped off to places of want, of want of actual productivity opportunities but will be depleted of markets sometime soon — and then they’ll retire like in the West with not much going for them by way of either pensions or opportunities go stagger on in business life, nor of anything after them by way of experience-transfer-loaded young crews that would seriously do anything different, better. No, don’t fall for that trap of thought that this all has been said before throughout the generations… It hasn’t, not in this way, not in any comparable situation.
So, the return of the leisure class, as ‘proven’ by Graeber and others, and reality, is there. But also, the Other 99,x% might (not) shift to the Leisure Cohorts. Not good for anything (as recently in all sorts of press, if (big if) you read it well) by lack of education, formal and certainly also practical, with the few smart ones in between skating towards a bright future but the others … at best, at very best, dunce consumers; passive, living on the edge. Yes, helped a lot by AI, progressively more, but leaving … dunce consumers. Don’t kid yourselves. Leisure cohorts without anything to leisure from nor anything to leisure with — as money and (through that or directly) other necessary goods come from productive work .. that has vanished into the ASI-out-there.

I could ramble on, like I so often do. But this time, I’ll leave it to you to do the hard work, I’m off leisuring. With:
20160408_133824
[Artsy Berlage, at his Beurs; inspirational not just to consume]

Be-four you turn enthousiastic

[Warning: Long-read. Opiniated, and structurally your recommendations ~~may be~~ are needed, too]

About all of the banking industry, and other financials in their wake, have had to deal with loads of regulatory requirements. Justified, some say, for ‘they’ cause(d) so much misery beyond mere most temporary loss of bonuses that the ‘un’ should be (have been long before) detached from bridled. So, Basel II and -III regulations swooped in requiring much more explicit and detailed handling of financial business than ever before. The move from laissez-faire to regulation, to regulation with sanction schemes, to sanctions (possibly interpreted as ‘token’…), was extended with provability and then complete proof-demonstration as minimum requirement.

This all, however, has created a large, and in general even I would say quite overpaid [disclaimer: am profiting too] industry of consultants, quants, ‘risk managers’, reviewers, assessors, auditors, and scores of Toms, Dicks¹ and Harries of the GRC kind. That are all very likeable nice lads and lassies, but maybe not quite worth their salt, certainly not their bonuses, or even be sure to be worth much lending one’s ear to.

Since March, suddenly, there’s news. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has released a consultative paper on ideas for (much-needed, many know) simplification of the operational risk management part of regulations. For Basel-IV forthcoming.
Continue reading “Be-four you turn enthousiastic”

Crash’in the wings

… Thinking back of the Taleb’ian remarks, and truths, on Extremistan, and how some more or less closely watched parameters may lose their variance but not their uncontrol since such petering out of shock’lets are just the precursors of an asteroid impact scale collapse, I wondered what is about to happen in infosecland. Since for weeks, nay months already, there has hardly been any news… Apart from the usual suspects (#ditchcyber ..!), there hasn’t been anything serious, has there, by means of yet another class break or more comprehensive controllability breakdown?

Which is why everyone should sit more uneasily, in stead of the opposite sleeping better than ever.

But then, this was the message from your Wolf-crying boy …?

To which:

[Since last Friday, you know this isn’t a reindeer but an elk that is no moose, at least not everywhere]

The ides of March

… aren’t today only, but are indicative of … well, a lot of what goes on in infosecland these days.
Who to trust, when your buddies and experts and both in ones, may carry knives or worse. Like, turning their your defenses against you behind your back. Like the Brutus’es and Ed S.’s did because their consciousness revived (true in both cases ..!), like the great many are doing without tipping you off already. Until it’s too late. And, in similar vein, how’zat for your backdoors built in ..?
But then, as long as you can sit there like a rabbit in the headlights … sleep now in the fire [insert appropriate link to RATM clip] because the Time Till Collapse may leave you less room for Après Nous la Déluge than ever before.

Just to wake you up, by the way; if you read the above as some kind of chagrain I may have achieved my aim of making you think beyond mere Mehhhh.
So, I’ll leave you with:

[Shifting politics, shifting alliances…]

Vindication …

With due respect, but vindication is a beautiful thing…
As I had delivered a lecture over five years on all the places that risk management of the Basel II/II style, using quants and all to model (an übercomplex combination of scores of) human behaviour thus sublimating one’s model errors and one’s misunderstanding of how the world turns, not even mentioning the risk of the 15.5 risk; necessarily (if you’d had got It) speculative about what’s next, the evaluation was heaviliy tilted from quite (UK style) positive to mediocre by one bad review, that had as only comment “not based in evidence”. See the latest pres’s in my LinkedIn profile; without much by way of speaker notes, the ones on e.g., Blind Alley et al. can be readily understood qua intent.
Recently then, finally, this arrived. Maybe spinning off in an adjacent direction; veering off or running in parallel? But definitely touching the sore spot.
To the point where the dish is sweetest served cold.
But hey, would have liked all the business (and ~travel…) opportunities that could’ve been…

Now, let’s all go study Basel IV’s methodology and learn (e.g., as in the above-linked article). Maybe there is a future for risk management. Even if not as a separate discipline; see my posts of management-in-general. Plus:
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[Once was my ‘work’ location; worth re-pursuing Trois Islets, Martinique]

Racing humanity against ASI

One thing still amiss in the discussions about the (near?) Future:
Whether Singularity/ASI will come before humanity leaving its biological substrate, or the other way around.

The first, leading to a dystopian future of humans initially being Machine’s pets but later (?) being discarded as inefficient nuisance. Even if only via Lanier‘s route.
The second giving some hope that humans may transform into ASI after which the age-old wars start all over again. Or, the first past the post takes all…

Yes, still ploughing through [and finding much want for evidence or less of it, and addition of great many ethics aspects] Kurzweil as here, here and here.
The first, in a great many previous posts on this blog. The second, too. I’m unsure how the future will play out. Now that Ray’s predictions, time-wise, seem to have fallen before (fallen non-behind) actuality maybe due to something with a financial crisis but Ray had demonstrated (?) that to not hurt the ‘real’ economy too much — from which either we will bounce back with a sprint to return to the (smooth..?) expo growth path, or we will prove not all that starts exponentially, will indefinitely continue that way. So we have lost already by not waking up fast enough or still have some time if only we’d wake up to join the discussion — not necessarily the Luddite revolt …

Your thoughts, please ..?

Oh and just wanted to add, for the relatively (very) short term: “If every instrument could accomplish its own work, obeying or anticipating the will of others, if the shuttle could weave, and the pick touch the lyre, without a hand to guide them, chief workmen would not need servants, nor masters slaves.” (Aristoteles) — taken to be positive. But just extend that; one could consider it short-sightedness by Ari to not have asked why there would be any chief workmen with the possibility that there would need not be any work at all leading to no income for all hence devastating poverty and starvation but for the few if any (sic) who ‘own’ the machines. Also:

[The interesting about ‘life’ in Chalons-en-Champagne is just a tucked-away corner, nothing more — same for humanity in the near future ..?]

In support of TED ..?

A certain, distinguished ( ? ;-| ) R. Kurzweil in The Singularity Is Near has some off the cuff remarks about becoming pets, Ted style. (p.32)
Which is a sligh against (later!) sages of the Musk, Gates and Hawkins class — and fully unjustified. Since the ‘Theory of Technology Evolution’ is a quasi(sic)religious circular argument paraphrasing Hegel with apparently quite carefully selected and probably redacted statistics and some ontological Technology-defeatism in the undertow.

And the rest is consumable but only when considering these initial ails as foundations hence only a particular Kuhnian discourse. Interpuncted (Eldredge/Gould style) with badly under- or misinformed remarks. E.g., regarding chaotic processes resulting in smooth exponential trends being not a coincidence but an inherent feature of evolutionary processes (p.73) — based on a misunderstanding of evolution, probably, since numerous times, the latter is made to appear like some purposeful decision making by individual instances of, or species as actors instead of happenstance sheer survival-luck. How much of the overwhelming evidence must one disregard to arrive at the smoothness!

The list goes on. But I will not. (Nevertheless…) read the darn thing and smile! Naivety is a good read, too. And:

[Yes, take your meds. No need to swallow just the blue pill that the above book might be, though. Barça, of course]

Rosebud and Cain

So, … Waking up, a deeper layer of the Citizen’s movie surfaced. Unsure whether this was even in the movie, but of course there’s the battle of the same name (note the number of casualties that today would not count for much but then still did ..!), where “Indians” fought on both sides, and probably did it the best, too. And it was the lead-up to that other one. And the land issue remained open (until 1980 no less) and can still not be considered closed…
But apart, or through, all that, I figured: The above is about people of the land protesting the plunder by what was hoped to be passers-by but that turned out to be permanent though (still) roving occupiers (not of the ~[name your city] kind you superficial dumbo — on second thought, might be similar to the here-meant protesters!), in perfect analogy to the biblical story of Abel and his brother. Where in the bible, the story is skewed towards the Traveler side as that’s the side of the victors that wrote the story in the first place.

And that’s why the main movie character is named as, like he is but then his career as the settled, is opposite. Then, his sled’s name refers to his childhood lost (clearly in the plot) which was a time of roaming free, just like the white man’s settler times before the above battles — that lasted till all was conquered and stable, necessarily locked-down by lack of remaining open terrain (well, …), society developed. This of course was also the man’s life: Ever more protecting Xanadu the archetypical dwelling, and the estate at large. Through emergency vent projects, some bits of the core primal power (as here and as reflected in the abovementioned biblical story, and also in e.g., Germanic and Scandinavian lore as close-to the very beginnings of cosmo- and anthropogenesis!) had been able to escape but had been ridiculed. See the pic below; if you get that. And, that in latter-day society, too, there were tribes of the same Culture fighting each other, on both sides.

Then, the life came to an end. And then, the realization of the integrated whole came back, not only the yearning for the lost innocence, but also the ‘misfit’ness of life’s escapes and in the recluse stages the possibility of returning to a more balanced and holistic life, which latter option had now vanished and the cycle was finished. Rosebud…
After which the Order, the cleaning up of the house, of course summarily dismissed the non-Apollo’nian into the fire (back to its origins, one notes) at the hands of the minions of mind, the dull-minded follower housekeepers.
For Dutch readers, this here item may also apply, in somewhat similar, overlapping fashion.

OK, OK, I known, my insights deteriorated throughout he writing-up into the already known. But just wanted to add my by now deeper anchoring of the trope(s)… And:

[Even the model is big. You know why this pic is here. And in DC]

Electibility for dogs (quoted from the ‘US’)

Bear with me; thinking of some country but applicable to a great many others’ politicians as well; a full-length quote with some notes:

The Dogs Hold An Election. [Brule Sioux]
We don’t think much of the white man’s elections. Whoever wins, we Indians always lose. Well, we have a little story about elections. Once, a long time ago, the dogs were trying to elect a president. So one of them got up in the big dog convention and said: “I nominate the bulldog for president. He’s strong. He can fight.”
“But he can’t run,” said another dog. “What good is a fighter who can’t run? He won’t catch anybody.”
Then another dog got up and said: “I nominate the greyhound, because for sure he can run.”
But the other dogs cried: “Naw, he can run alright, but he can’t fight. When he catches up with somebody, what happens then? He gets the hell beaten out of him, that’s what! So all he’s good for is running away.”
Then an ugly little mutt got up and said: “I nominate that dog for president who smells good underneath his tail.”
And immediately and equally ugly mutt jumped up and yelled: “I second he motion.”
At once all the dogs started sniffing underneath each other’s tails. A big chorus went up:
“Phew, he doesn’t smell good under his tail.”
“No, neither does this one.”
“He no presidential timber!”
“No, he’s no good either.”
“This one sure isn’t the people’s choice.”
“Wow, this ain’t my candidate!”
When you go out for a walk, just watch the dogs. They’re still sniffing underneath each other’s tails. They’re looking for a good leader, and they still haven’t found him.
Told by Lame Deer at Winner, Rosebud Indian Reservation, South Dakota, 1969
[And blatantly copied by me from Erdoes and Ortiz: American Indian myths and legends, Pantheon NY 1984]

Now, the bulldog of course may very well be Saunders (!). The greyhound, well, think Waving Hair (of sorts). But the butt-sniffing: Everywhere around the world.

Plus:

[Justified pride. No sniffing required. DC]